Dec. 29
Gins are wrapping up a long season
If USDA's projected 13.45 million-bale production estimate stands, the 1998 crop is about 84 percent ginned, according to the agency's latest ginning report released Dec. 11.

Although most states are expecting smaller crops than last year, and those expectations are reflected in ginning numbers, three Southeastern states are ahead of last year's ginnings for the same date:
 

In fact, Virginia's 1998 ginning numbers exceed its numbers for each of the previous three years.

No single factor or common combination of factors explains the ginning differences in those three states. Alabama, which has ginned 87 percent of its estimated production, expects that a slightly higher per-acre yield and a small acreage increase will produce a larger crop than in 1997. Virginia, which has ginned 90 percent of its estimated production, also expects a larger crop, but from a big increase in yield and a small reduction in harvested acreage. South Carolina, with 88 percent of its estimated production already ginned, expects to produce 60,000 fewer bales, resulting from a slight reduction in acreage and a significant drop in yield.

The only state that, so far, has ginned more than its projected production is Louisiana, with 650,000 bales compared to its production estimate of 645,000 bales. Mississippi and Missouri have each ginned 96 percent of their expected production. California has ginned 86 percent of its estimated production, but its crop is expected to be only 56 percent of last year's. Arizona, which expects to produce a crop about 68 percent as large as last year, has ginned only 50 percent of that. New Mexico expects a larger crop than last year, but brings up the rear in ginning, with 43 percent of its expected crop now in bales.

Click here to see a table showing ginning progress since Oct. 15.

Crop estimate up -- for a change
The U.S. crop is a little bigger than had been thought, according to the latest Agriculture Department production estimate, released Friday. Production is expected to reach 13.45 million bales from 10.39 million harvested acres. That's up 2 percent from the November estimate, but down 28 percent from 1997. Average yield is pegged at 621 pounds per harvested acre, up 9 pounds from November, but 59 pounds per acre short of last year's average.

Texas production rose 300,000 bales from the November estimate, but California's output dropped 100,000 bales.

Harvest was 90 percent complete as of Nov. 29, compared to the five-year average of 87 percent. Ginning also was ahead of average, with 11,271,800 bales processed, according to the bi-monthly ginning report also released Dec. 11.
 

The final push for that last 10 percent
The 1998 crop was 90 percent harvested by Nov. 29, according to USDA's weekly Crop Progress report for Nov. 30, the last date for which a report has been issued.

As of the end of November, eight states were either completely finished or had 3 percent or less to go. Of states with the latest crops, California had 70 percent of its crop harvested and New Mexico had 74 percent. Arizona had 83 percent; Georgia, 85; Oklahoma and Texas, 87 each.

Click here for a table showing harvest progress since Sept. 13.

Dec. 11
Georgia production conference
If you're within driving distance of Tifton, Ga., you should plan to attend the 1998 Georgia Cotton Production Workshop Dec. 10-11. Sessions will cover cotton production from variety choice to harvest equipment, all geared to the specific needs of Southeastern growers. Experts from around the Cotton Belt, including many of Georgia's own, will be presenting the latest information and answering questions.

You can ask:

Click here for the complete program.

The workshop is at the Rural Development Center in Tifton. Sessions begin at 8 a.m. each day. To register, contact extension cotton agronomist Steven M. Brown at 912-386-7497 or the Rural Development Conference Office at 912-386-3416.
 

Dec. 1
Harvest hits the home stretch
The pickers are in the sheds in Mississippi. USDA reports that harvest was complete in Mississippi, 99 percent finished in Louisiana, 98 percent done in Tennessee and 97 percent complete in Arkansas as of Nov. 15. Alabama and Missouri are 93 percent finished. North Carolina is 90 percent done and South Carolina is 89 percent finished. All these states are ahead of their five-year averages, and all but Louisiana are ahead of last year's progress on the same date.

Georgia, with 76 percent of the crop harvested, is 4 percent ahead of its five-year average and 17 percent ahead of last year at the same date. Texas is 75 percent complete, 11 percent ahead of its five-year average and 5 percent ahead of last year. Oklahoma maintains the biggest lead over its five-year average and last year: 80 percent harvested compared to a five-year average of 53 percent and last year's 58 percent.

Only western states are behind the averages. Arizona has harvested 71 percent of its crop, compared to 81 percent for both the five-year average and last year's progress. California's 45 percent harvested is less than half its five-year average of 98 percent or last year's 94 percent. New Mexico, which usually is slightly ahead of Oklahoma, breaks tradition this year. It has harvested 43 percent of its crop, compared with a five-year average of 66 percent and last year's 68 percent.

Overall, the crop is 80 percent harvested, slightly ahead of the beltwide five-year average of 77 percent and last year's 76 percent.
Click here for a table showing state-by-state harvest progress since Sept. 13.

Half ginned
Just over half of the projected U.S. cotton crop had been ginned as of Nov. 1, according to USDA's twice-monthly ginning report. Ginnings for all cotton totaled 7.36 million bales, with Pima accounting for 40,300 bales. Mississippi, whose harvest was 98 percent complete on Nov. 1, had ginned 1.2 million bales of its expected 1.4 million-bale crop. Texas, with 1.6 million bales ginned, had baled about half of its expected 3 million-bale crop, but still had about a third of the crop in the field. California, having been delayed all season by a cold, wet spring, had ginned just shy of 161,000 bales. On Nov. 1, 1997, California had ginned more than 1 million bales.

The next ginning report is due Nov. 25.

Production estimate drops to 13.2
The Agriculture Department estimates U.S. cotton production will be 13.2 million bales in 1998, down 57,500 bales from the October estimate and 30 percent less than the 1997 crop. Harvested acreage is forecast at 13.27 million acres, with yield averaging 612 pounds per harvested acre.

Georgia's production was lowered 100,000 bales from the October forecast, as yield potential declined another 37 pounds per acre. Georgia is expected to produce 519,000 fewer bales than last year. Of five states whose production estimates rose since last month, Arkansas had the greatest increase, 50,000 bales, and the state's average yield went up some 28 pounds per acre. Still, Arkansas is expected to produce 483,000 fewer bales than in 1997. Alabama's yield expectation rose 26 pounds per harvested acre, and that state is projected to produce 20,000 bales more than last year. California's crop is expected to be more than a million bales short of last year's production with an average yield 273 pounds per acre less than last year's and 225,000 fewer acres harvested.

Click here for USDA's complete report.

'Hard Jeans' seeing hard times
Remember when you got your favorite five-pocket Levi's? If you have to think back more than a few months, you’re part of the reason Levi Strauss & Co. is cutting jobs left and right. After closing 10 plants in the United States already this year, the company  announced a 60-day work suspension at seven plants in Texas, Tennessee, South Carolina and Georgia. The reason — a flat market for Levi’s blue jeans.

Levi Strauss, the world’s largest clothing manufacturer, operates 20 plants in the United States. Worldwide, the company employs approximately 30,000 people in 41 production facilities and 27 customer service centers in more than 50 countries, according to its website, levistrauss.com.

A company spokeswoman said production would be suspended Dec. 1-Jan. 31 at four facilities in Texas, and one each in Tennessee, South Carolina and Georgia. During the suspension, employees will receive 90 percent of their pay and will receive vacation and holiday pay.

The move follows an announcement in September that as part of a restructuring plan, Levi Strauss would close three plants in Belgium and one in France. The company also planned to shut down two finishing plants in Texas, citing reduced need for finishing after closing 10 sewing plants earlier in the year.

Thursday’s announcement came a year, almost to the day, after Levi’s announced it would close 11 U.S. plants. Wondering what point those "Hard Jeans" commercials are trying to make?

When it rains, it pours on Texas cotton
Rain has come just at the wrong time for cotton in Texas all year. The summer's drought is projected to cost cotton producers in the state $659 million and result in one of the smallest crops in the past 20 years, according to the Texas Department of Agriculture. As if that weren't bad enough, some areas of the Plains got enough rain last week to interfere with the harvest of what little cotton the growers there were able to make. Wet fields have also been a problem for Coastal Bend growers, who although finished harvesting, were trying to plow down stalks in early October. And the storms that raged across south Texas cost lives as well as crops.

USDA estimates that 250,000 Texas cotton acres were abandoned in September. It now expects Texas to produce 3 million bales of upland cotton on 3.05 million acres this year, down 2.1 million bales and 2.1 million acres from 1997. Yields averaged 472 pounds per acre on Oct. 1, comparable to 1997's 479 pounds per acre and improved from 436 pounds per acre on Sept. 1. Texas is expected to produce 60,000 bales of pima cotton on 37,000 acres, averaging 778 pounds per acre. USDA's objective yield data indicate Texas' crop has the fourth-lowest count of large bolls and the second-lowest boll weight since 1988.

The drought is expected to cost Texas agriculture more than $2.1 billion in direct economic losses, according to TDA. Texas agricultural losses translate into projected economic losses of about $5.8 billion to the state's economy.

Grain and livestock losses account for $521 million, not including additional feed costs. Producer losses for corn are projected at $255 million; for grain sorghum, $140 million. Grain sorghum producers are expected to harvest the smallest crop since 1953. Direct revenue losses from herd reductions are projected at $126 million. Added costs from feeding livestock are projected at $325 million. During the summer, Texas producers were averaging $3.5 million a day in added feed costs.
 

Nov. 16
Missouri, show me how to harvest
Missouri takes the prize this week for harvest progress, gaining 17 percent. Missouri's crop was 87 percent harvested as of Nov. 8, according to USDA's weekly Crop Progress report. That puts the state 6 percent ahead of the same time last year and virtually even with its five-year average of 86 percent for the same date.

California harvesters also swung into action last week, raising the state's harvest from 15 percent the week before to 35 percent Nov. 8. That's still substantially behind the five-year average of 78 percent and last year's 84 percent.

Alabama and New Mexico each gained 12 percent last week, bringing Alabama's harvest to 91 percent and New Mexico to 35 percent. That puts Alabama ahead of its five-year average of 75 percent and last year's 66 percent. Next week's number is likely to be about the same, as the state has seen several days of rain. New Mexico lags behind its five-year average of 53 percent and last year's 52 percent.

Harvesting slowed down in Oklahoma after a big gain the week before. Harvest there is 76 percent complete, compared to 74 percent the week before. The five-year average for the state is 42 percent and growers had gathered 39 percent of their crop at the same time last year.

Overall, the 1998 crop is 75 percent harvested, compared to 68 percent at the same time last year. The beltwide five-year average for the date is 69 percent. Click here for a table showing state-by-state harvest comparisons for the entire season.

Whither Oklahoma's harvest? Weather!
"Seventy-four percent is a lot for this time of year," says Gordon Couger of Stillwater, Okla., about his state's cotton harvest. "A lot of years, we are just getting started by now." The Agriculture Department reported that on Nov. 1, Oklahoma growers had harvested 74 percent of their crop, a 16 percent gain in just one week. At the same time in 1994, Oklahoma had harvested only 29 percent, and the five-year average is 33 percent.

Why the big difference this year? Planting weather, growing weather, harvest weather.

"First there was a great reduction in planting of dryland acres, resulting in a considerable oversupply of strippers," says Couger. "The weather (at harvest) was great, and it doesn't take long to strip 1/3 bale cotton.

"Also there wasn't much late cotton planted, so all the cotton was ready early. Dry weather in September guaranteed there was no top crop.

And, Couger says, "Last year's crop was slow to get out due to wet weather."

"I would suspect that all the good cotton is out since there hasn't been a frost yet," he says. "It doesn't pay to kill 1/4 bale or less cotton. So I think the cotton that is left is the low end that is going to generate insurance payments. With the current price of cotton, every pound you lose is money in your pocket if you are going to be paid crop insurance on the cotton."

Nov. 12
One-third ginned, two-thirds harvested
U.S. gins had processed more than 4.3 million bales of the 1998 crop as of Oct. 15, according to USDA’s latest Cotton Ginnings report. That’s about a half-million bales ahead of what had been ginned by the same date last year, but about the same distance behind 1996 and 1995. Click here to see a table comparing ginning progress for the last four years.

Bales ginned amount to roughly one-third of USDA’s production estimate for the season, while just under two-thirds of the crop has been harvested, according to the Agriculture Department’s Oct. 26 Crop Progress report. The harvest report is issued weekly, while the ginning report is issued only at mid-month.

Midsouth states are closest to finishing harvest. Mississippi, with 885,100 bales ginned as of Oct. 15, has harvested 94 percent of its crop. Louisiana, with 401,500 bales ginned, is 92 percent harvested. Tennessee, with 282,000 bales ginned, is 84 percent harvested, while Arkansas, with 630,250 bales ginned, is 79 percent harvested. Missouri lags behind its more southern neighbors, with 133,150 bales ginned and harvest 57 percent complete.

The Southeastern states range from North Carolina’s 70 percent completion with 274,000 bales to Georgia’s 46 percent and 221,400 bales. Alabama is 69 percent harvested with 188,800 bales ginned and South Carolina is 65 percent harvested with 128,100 bales. Although harvest progress figures are not available, Florida has ginned 11,250 bales and Virginia has ginned 48,600 bales.

In the Southwest and West, harvest still has a long way to go. Texas is 60 percent harvested and has just over a million bales ginned. Oklahoma, at 58 percent harvested, has 45,750 bales. New Mexico had harvested only 18 percent of its crop as of Oct. 15, and ginning numbers are not yet being released. California has barely begun, with only 6 percent of the crop harvested and no ginning figures yet available. Arizona, with 630,250 bales, is 44 percent harvested.
 

Production estimate down again in October
The 1998 U.S. cotton crop is forecast at 13.3 million bales in USDA's October Crop Production report. That figure is down 2 percent from the September estimate and 29 percent lower than 1997 production. The October yield estimate went up slightly from September. Yield is expected to average 616 pounds per harvested acre, down 64 pounds from last year. The September estimate pegged yield at 614 pounds per harvested acre.

Texas harvested acres were reduced 250,000 acres from September's forecast, but production remains unchanged.  The California crop production was lowered 100,000 bales from last month. Georgia's production was reduced 50,000 bales from the previous month's forecast, due to the effects of Hurricane Georges and Tropical Storm Earl. Alabama's loss to Hurricane Georges is expected to be less significant, with a reduction of 24,000 bales since the September estimate.
 

Images of picking cotton
It's cotton-picking time in Alabama. In Limestone County early in the month, with a hurricane roiling in the state's southern counties and threatening to move north, the huge harvesters were out in force. Teams of pickers kept the module-builders busy, so that by the end of the day, fields that started out snow covered were again the color of bricks, while giant bricks of cotton sat scattered around the fields in lines and dots like scraps of Morse Code. The white lint against a backdrop of red Alabama clay, pickers of red and green, bright yellow module-builders and the growing gray clouds were a combination that demanded to be photographed.
Click here to see the pictures.
 

Nov. 9
Oklahoma throttles up
Harvest has kicked into high gear in Oklahoma. With 74 percent of the crop harvested as of Nov. 1, Oklahoma gained 16 percent
in one week, according to USDA's weekly Crop Progress report. Other big gainers were Missouri, which gained 13 percent, and
Arkansas and South Carolina, which gained 12 percent each. Missouri's harvest stood at 70 percent on Nov. 1, while Arkansas
had harvested 91 percent and South Carolina 77 percent.

Mississippi still leads all other states is harvest progress, with 98 percent. Louisiana is close behind, with 97 percent. The 4 percent
gain in Mississippi and 5 percent in Louisiana show the end-of-season slowdown as growers move into the late-maturing fields.

Harvest has been slow in Georgia, despite an early start. However, with 58 percent of the crop harvested, Georgia matches its
five-year average and has surpassed the 46 percent harvested at the same time last year.
 

Oct. 28
Financial alternatives seminar
The Lubbock County Office of the Texas Agricultural Extension Service will host a seminar Wednesday evening from 7 to 9 at the Plains Cooperative Oil Mill, 2901 Avenue A, regarding bankruptcy and non-bankruptcy alternatives for dealing with financial stress on Texas farms and ranches. Some of the alternatives discussed will include: changes in the operation, voluntary restructuring of debt, partial or total voluntary liquidation, Chapter 7, and Chapter 12 bankruptcies.

This meeting is being sponsored by the Executive Board of the Lubbock County Extension Program Council. There is no fee for this meeting, and refreshments will be provided. For more information, contact the Lubbock County Extension Office at 806/767-1190.

Oct. 27
Through the gins: 2 million bales
USDA's Oct. 9 Cotton Ginnings report shows gins have processed 2,054,950 bales as of Oct. 1. While Texas has ginned more than 665,000 bales, Mississippi is closing in with 405,550 bales. Arkansas has ginned 240,900; Louisiana 78,450; Tennessee 128,000; Georgia 111,400;  California, New Mexico and Virginia have not yet begun ginning.

The next Cotton Ginnings report will be released Oct. 23.

Cold water to bring warm winter
NCEP's latest model shows La Nina conditions starting to dissipate as early as this month, but the sea surface temperature off the west coast of Peru is not expected to return to normal until at least July. The Climate Prediction Center's diagnostic advisory for Sept. 10  said conditions indicated La Nina would be weak but would continue strengthening through the end of the year. That advisory has not been updated for October.

Predictions still call for less-than-normal precipitation across the Cotton Belt this winter. The Climate Prediction Center's forecast for October-December shows 5 percent to 10 percent less rain than normal in the Southeast, up to 30 percent less in the desert Southwest, and up to 40 percent less in Texas. In addition, temperatures should range from 5 percent to 30 percent warmer than normal across the Southwest and Florida.

If you are really fascinated by El Nino/La Nina and have time to download huge files, here's a site that has movies from space showing sea surface height and ocean temperature anomalies. They were prepared at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, and are current through last March.

Goddard also offers a 4Mb animated loop of sea surface temperature anomalies for July-September that's worth the wait to download. It shows the streak of cold water thickening and moving west to the central Pacific in July, then thinning and extending east back toward the coast of Peru in early August, finally reaching peak intensity in mid-August. At its widest point, the cold water stretches nearly all the way across the ocean from Peru to Papua New Guinea.
 

Soggy outlook for south Alabama
As sunshine returns to much of the South, growers are starting to assess their crop losses. As much as 40,000 acres of high-yielding cotton in southwest Alabama were in the direct line of Hurricane Georges' strongest winds as the storm made landfall. The area suffered sustained winds of 105 mph and at least 13 inches of rain, and even after the storm passed, flooding remained. Much of the cotton had been defoliated outside of Mobile and Baldwin counties, Auburn University's Dale Monks reported in anticipation of the storm, but the cotton in the direct path was a little later maturing. The crop loss there is likely 100 percent for any cotton that had not been picked.
One grower told the Mobile Register he'd picked about 20 percent of his cotton.

Georgia saw a "pretty bad situation south and west of us, bad enough here," Ashburn consultant Carl Hobbs reported Wednesday. "We had 2.4 inches (of rain) total out of Georges, but there are reports of 9 inches south and west, and some tornadoes. Losses are mounting."

In the Albany area, grower and consultant Ed Hood saw more rain, but was optimistic about the extent of the losses. "We've had about 3 to 4 inches over this way," he said. "Some wind, but not too bad. Lint strung out, though. I estimate lint losses around 10 percent, mostly due to lower turn out. Quality losses depend on how soon the sun shines!"

Oct. 9
Georges dictates quick picking
With 85 percent of its cotton fields with bolls opening and only 20 percent harvested, Alabama growers were in line to take heavy losses from Hurricane Georges. The extent of the losses in south Alabama won't be known for possibly several weeks. Cotton in the northern counties, generally in better condition anyway, fared better with the weather. The rain held off through Tuesday morning north of Birmingham, as Tennessee Valley growers picked frantically under ominous clouds.

Tuesday, Georges, now downgraded to a tropical storm, moved into Georgia, where 79 percent of the fields had bolls opening and 15 percent had been harvested, according to USDA's Crop Progress report for Sept. 28. In the southern part of the state, Ashburn consultant Carl Hobbs estimated about 25 percent of the crop had been defoliated. With a light rain falling Tuesday morning and a foreboding forecast, Hobbs was less concerned about the cotton than the south Georgia peanut crop.

"Peanut combines have been very busy in this area the last week," he said. "If plowed-up peanuts get beaten into the ground by a storm, the loss becomes 80 percent. Cotton with leaves on it can wait; as vulnerable as it is, it is not nearly as delicate as peanuts. Additionally, this is the best peanut crop since 1994, and just another poor to fair cotton crop."

Louisiana and Mississippi, which took less of a direct hit from the storm, were further along in their harvest. Both states had 100 percent of fields with bolls opening. Louisiana had harvested 24 percent, and Mississippi, 35 percent, ahead of all other states.

Texas had harvested 34 percent of its crop, and 77 percent of fields have bolls opening.

California and New Mexico were the only states that had not begun harvest. California had 60 percent of fields with bolls opening, and New Mexico had 74 percent.

Click here for a table showing crop maturity and condition.
Click here for a table showing harvest progress.

Through the gins: three-quarters of a million bales
USDA's Sept. 25 Cotton Ginnings report shows gins have processed 738,500 bales as of Sept. 15, the vast majority of it in
Texas. While Texas has ginned more than 600,000 bales, the next closest state is Mississippi with almost 43,000 bales.
Georgia and Louisiana have ginned about 18,000 bales each; Arkansas has ginned about 13,500; Alabama and South
Carolina, just over 10,000 each; and Tennessee, 8,000. Missouri has ginned close to 2,000, and Arizona, almost 6,000.

The next Cotton Ginnings report will be released Oct. 9.

Oct. 5
La Nina link
If you can't get enough of la Nina, here's a page with excellent information, some of it in plain English. NOAA la Nina page.

While you're thinking about weather, think back to 1984. If that was a significant year for you, I'd like to know why and what changes you've made or seen as a result. E-mail me at gcertain@wwisp.com.

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