Sept. 30
Hey, Georges: Cotton doesn't need a big blowhard
As Hurricane Georges moved ashore at Ocean Springs, Miss., after midnight Sunday, the question of who would be hit was replaced by how hard.

Taking the brunt of the storm early Monday was cotton waiting to be harvested or ginned in south Alabama and the Florida panhandle. "The storm went onto shore west of Mobile, which puts the cotton producers in south Mobile and Baldwin counties (west and east of Mobile Bay) in real trouble," explains Dale Monks at Auburn University. The storm's counter-clockwise rotation typically brings the worst of the wind and rain to the area northeast of the eye just before landfall -- that would be Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama.

"These folks can typically grow over two-bale cotton in a reasonable year, but hurricanes and tropical storms can cause a lot of trouble," Monks said in an e-mail message to the Cotton-L discussion list Monday morning. "There are probably 20,000 acres or so in those two counties combined, and another 20,000 or so acres in the southwest Alabama area that will get drenched in the middle of an early harvest season. Much of the cotton has been defoliated outside the immediate area, but the cotton in the direct path has been a little later this season and should still have leaves on -- at least before the storm.

"The outlook for the rest of central and southwest Alabama is for a lot of rain through Wednesday,  which may take some excellent grades down.

"Boll rot is going to be awful," Monks predicted.

Doppler radar images at 8:45 a.m. showed the storm centered over the Mississippi-Alabama state line, with fairly heavy rainfall extending over a 100-mile radius, ending just southeast of Jackson, Miss., and south of Birmingham, Ala. Bands of heavier rainfall ran roughly north and south across southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle.

Pushing ahead with harvest
The Texas crop last week reflected the summer's uncertain growing conditions, as 30 percent of the crop was harvested, but only 65 percent had bolls opening, according to USDA's Crop Progress report. Only California, with 35 percent of the crop with bolls opening and New Mexico with 64 percent, were later in maturity. The Texas crop is not late, however. The numbers for both maturity and harvest are ahead of the state's five-year average. California, where harvest had yet to begin as of Sunday, is significantly behind its five-year average of 89 percent bolls opening. New Mexico is slightly behind its five-year average of 69 percent bolls opening. In contrast, Oklahoma has 86 percent of its crop with open bolls but has harvested only 1 percent.

In the Southeast, harvest is progressing well ahead of the five-year averages. Alabama had harvested 11 percent of its crop as of Sept. 20, compared to its five-year average of 4 percent. Georgia had 9 percent harvested, compared to 6 percent for the five-year average. South Carolina had 13 percent harvested against a five-year average of 4 percent. North Carolina had 3 percent harvested, while its five-year average is 2 percent. Although not as advanced in harvest, North Carolina's crop had  bolls opening in 85 percent of fields, while its five-year average is 70 percent. USDA does not report Virginia's crop progress.

In the Midsouth, harvest is progressing more or less at its normal pace. Two states, Mississippi and Tennessee, are significantly ahead of their five-year averages. Mississippi's 18 percent harvest figure is double the state's five-year average. Similarly, Tennessee has harvested 11 percent compared to a five-year average of 5 percent. Arkansas' 4 percent harvested equals its five-year average, while at 12 percent harvested, Louisiana is one percentage point ahead of its five-year average. Missouri, at 2 percent harvested, is 3 points behind its five-year average.

Overall, USDA estimates the U.S. crop is 17 percent harvested and that 73 percent of fields have open bolls. The five-year averages for the same date are 12 percent harvested and 65 percent with open bolls.

Click here for a table showing crop maturity and condition.
Click here for a table showing harvest progress.

Sept. 22
Production takes a late hit
Mississippi passed Louisiana last week in crop maturity, according to the Agriculture Department’s weekly Crop Progress report. Whereas Louisiana had 91 percent bolls opening by Sept. 13, its neighbor to the east had 95 percent. While both states are significantly ahead of last year and their five-year average in maturity, they are expected to miss last year’s production levels by several hundred thousand bales each.

Click here for a table showing each state's progress and crop condition.

USDA projects production in Mississippi to be 1.5 million bales, down 300,000 bales from 1997, according to the Sept. 11 Crop Production report. The report pegs Louisiana production at 720,000 bales, down 266,000 from 1997. Yields are projected to average 787 pounds per harvested acre in Mississippi and 640 in Louisiana.

The U.S. crop is forecast at 13.6 million bales, down 5 percent from the August estimate, and down 28 percent from 1997. Yield is expected to average 614 pounds per harvested acre, down 66 pounds from last year. Arkansas' production was lowered 210,000 bales from August, with projected average yield of 646 pounds per harvested acre. Both California and Texas were lowered 100,000 bales. California yield is projected at 939 pounds per harvested acre, while Texas is expected to average 440 pounds per harvested acre. Beltwide, Upland harvested acres were lowered 95,000 from last month, 45,000 acres in California and 50,000 acres in Georgia.

Harvest is well under way in Texas, with 26 percent of the crop harvested by Sept. 13. Mississippi had harvested 8 percent, while Louisiana and Georgia had harvested 7 percent each. Both Alabama and Arizona had harvested 4 percent, South Carolina 3 percent, Tennessee 2 percent, and Arkansas and Oklahoma, 1 percent each. Harvest was yet to begin in California, Missouri, New Mexico and North Carolina as of Sept. 13, according to USDA.

The gins are open, yields are mixed
The Agriculture Department reports that 523,950 bales of cotton had been ginned as of Sept. 1, all of it from Texas. That's 165,000 more than had been ginned at the same time a year ago, and significantly ahead of any of the three previous years. Some 433,000 bales had been ginned by the first of September in 1995 and 342,400 in 1996.

Click here to go to USDA's monthly cotton ginnings report.

With ideal weather across much of the South during the past two weeks, however, USDA's numbers are already outdated. Reports are coming in from across the Cotton Belt that picking and ginning are under way.

Cotton broker Jim Nunn in Brownsville, Tenn., saw the first picking there this week. "I've had a chance to check on some early yields around West Tennessee," he says. "To summarize, early picking is a little better than expected. There are reports of 3/4 bale, but also 625-650 lbs., with one report of 750 lbs. first picking."

Just to the west, Steve Bryles reports that a few growers are getting started in northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri. "Don't know anything about yields, though I have noticed a slight improvement in grower disposition," he says. That could be because the defoliated cotton "looks a little better than we thought it was going to look a few weeks ago," he says. "We have had ideal weather to facilitate maturation and defoliation."

Although Louisiana leads the belt in cotton maturity, yields do not look good. "Here in northeast Louisiana, picking is just starting," reports Jerry Williams. "Yield has varied from one-third to a bale per acre so far, with more toward one-third than one bale."

Clayton, La., consultant Roger Carter paints a bleak picture. "We are picking cotton, but it is terrible -- the worst that I have seen in 35 years of consulting. One-fourth to one-half bale on the earliest that has been picked. Disaster all the way. This is behind aflatoxin in corn and less than 10 bushels per acre soybeans."

Picking is also getting started in north and central Alabama, reports Charles Monks at Auburn. "The word from the north is that the fields are turning out better than first expected (650 lbs. per acre instead of 500-550)." The state's southeastern counties were hit hard by drought in June and July, Monks recalls, so he expects yields to range from 200 to 800 lbs. per acre across the state, with an average of between 550 and 600 lbs. per acre.

Auburn economist Bob Goodman, who also farms "less than 1,000 acres" in central Alabama, says none of his cotton is open yet.

Ginning will begin Monday in southwest Georgia, says consultant Ed Hood. "Have about 20 modules on yard, more to come; yields are gonna surprise some, disappoint others," he says. Growers had damage from stink bugs and an unusual bronzing and wilt in Paymaster 1220 cotton, he says. Hood predicts a state yield average of 550 to 600 lbs. per harvested acre.

California's crop has been behind all year, thanks to a cool, wet spring. Cotton in the San Joaquin Valley "is barely open," says Mark Bagby, "which means we're still about a month behind last year."

Sept. 15
Closing in on harvest
Cotton is maturing quickly across most of the belt, according to USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, issued Wednesday. Bolls were opening on 51 percent of the crop by Sept. 6. Progress was more than a week ahead of the five-year average in most of the southern Plains, Delta and Southeast states, but  continued to lag in the Southwest. The California crop, late all year, had only 3 percent of the crop with bolls opening. Normally, more than half the crop would have bolls opening by this date, according to the report. Arizona, with 64 percent of the crop with bolls opening, still is behind its five-year average of 90 percent and last year's 87 percent on the same date.

Louisiana leads the Cotton Belt in bolls opening, with 88 percent. This compares with 60 percent a year ago and a five-year average of 67 percent. Louisiana reports 5 percent of its crop is in excellent condition and 18 percent in very poor condition. Mississippi is close behind in maturity, with 86 percent of the crop with bolls opening. A year ago, 33 percent of the Mississippi crop had bolls opening and the five-year average is 61 percent. Mississippi's crop is in better shape, with 12 percent reported excellent and 4 percent very poor. The rest of the Delta and Southeast are in the range of 40 percent to 60 percent with bolls opening and mostly low numbers for percent in excellent condition. A notable exception is Arkansas, where 13 percent of the crop is reported excellent and only 1 percent very poor.

In the Southwest, Oklahoma, which got a late start, has 35 percent of the crop with bolls opening and 7 percent in excellent condition. New Mexico has 33 percent of the crop with bolls opening, but reported the highest portion of the crop in excellent condition, 23 percent. Of the surviving the Texas crop, after a summer-long drought followed by floods from Tropical Storm Charley, 49 percent has bolls opening, and only 3 percent reported in excellent condition. Not surprisingly, Texas reported the largest portion of the crop, 23 percent, in very poor condition.

Sept. 10
Production estimate drops again
USDA has reduced its estimate of cotton production in 1998 to 14.3 million bales, down 24 percent from 1997 and some 700,000 bales less than its July estimate. Yield is now expected to average 640 pounds per harvested acre, down 40 pounds from last year.

Hot, dry conditions during most of the season have lowered yield potential, according to the Agriculture Department’s Aug. 12 Crop Production report based on Aug. 1 conditions.

Producers planted 12.9 million acres, 7 percent below 1997.  Upland cotton accounts for 12.6 million planted acres, also down 7 percent from last year.  American-Pima plantings totaled 313,500 acres, 25 percent more than last year, according to the report.

Harvested acreage of upland cotton is estimated at 10.5 million acres, down  20 percent from a year ago. Expected pima cotton harvested acres, at 244,500, are down 4,500 acres or 2 percent from last year, and production is down 15 percent.

Texas
Large acreages of both upland and pima cottons were abandoned in Texas, as a summer-long drought devastated crops. Total abandonment in Texas is expected to total 1.90 million acres; of that, 68,000 acres are pima. Abandonment in Texas is estimated at 37 percent in 1998, compared to 6  percent the previous year.

Irrigation insured that some Texas growers will make a crop, but lack of rain on unirrigated acreage accounts for high abandonment. Throughout July, Texas growers reported at least 40 percent of the acreage in very poor to poor condition and less than one-fourth in good to excellent condition.  On Aug. 2, 54 percent was rated very poor to poor and 19 percent in good to excellent condition.

Harvest has begun along the Texas coast and in the Blacklands. Data from the objective yield survey show Texas' fruit counts rank fifth since 1989, the USDA report says. Ginnings totaled 145,550 running bales prior to Aug. 1, compared with 2,200 running bales ginned by the same date last year and 48,150 running bales in 1996.

Delta
Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, rated most of their cotton acreage in fair to good condition in early August, with about three-fourths of the acreage in Arkansas and Louisiana in fair to good condition, and 80 percent of Mississippi's crop in fair to good condition.

Only 6 percent of the Louisiana crop was rated in excellent condition, while 8 percent of the Arkansas crop and 10 percent of Mississippi's crop were rated excellent.  Cotton began showing the effects from the hot, dry weather in early July.  The percent of the Arkansas crop rated in good to excellent condition on July 19, dropped 13 points from late June to 55 percent.

Louisiana's rating dropped 12 points during this same time period to 38 percent, while Mississippi showed  only a 5 point drop to 70 percent being rated in good to excellent condition

West
During the first week of August, 45 percent of Arizona's crop was in good to excellent condition and 38 percent was in fair condition.  One-fourth of California's crop was rated good and three-fourths was rated in fair condition.

Rains delayed planting in California during the season, and in early May, the state's plantings were 30 points behind the five-year average. The early planted fields began developing well, but eventually cloudy and cool conditions slowed development to soil crusting and fungal problems, and replanting acreage to cotton and other crops began. In late June, three-fourths of California's acreage was rated in very poor to poor condition.  Producers were authorized to plant the shorter season, non-Acala varieties in California because of these adverse conditions.

These weather effects caused development of the California crop to lag well behind the normal pace. Boll set on Aug. 2 in California was at 20 percent, 68 points below the five-year average, and squaring was 80 percent complete, 20 points below the average. Data from objective yield plots indicate California's count of large and small bolls is the lowest since 1989.

Southeast
In Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina, plantings were behind average for most of the season except in Alabama, where producers exceeded the average planting pace. The weather remained hot and dry after plantings were completed.

Development was above average in Alabama but varied in the other states. On Aug. 2, Alabama's crop was rated 30 percent very poor to poor, 26 percent fair, and 43 percent in good condition. Georgia's crop was rated 15 percent in very poor condition, 21 percent poor, 32 percent fair, and one-fourth in  good condition.  In South Carolina, 40 percent of the cotton was in very poor to poor condition, 37 percent fair and 23 percent good.  North Carolina showed about two-thirds in good to excellent condition, and about one-fourth in fair condition.

Pima
American-Pima production is forecast at 464,000 bales, down 15 percent from 1997's output.  Yield is indicated at 911 pounds per harvested acre, down 145 pounds from last year's record high yield. Arizona yields are down 26 pounds from last year, at 886 pounds, and California yields are 939 pounds, down 202 pounds from 1997's crop.

California's planted acreage was unchanged from last year at 185,000 acres.  Plantings in the San Joaquin Valley began with unseasonably cool, wet conditions which kept progress to a minimum until the last of April.  June temperatures were below normal and crop development as of Aug. 1, was behind normal.

In Texas, the large amount of acreage seeded in non-traditional producing areas was subject to substantial abandonment. Planted acreage in the state totaled 105,000 acres. Yields are expected to be 843 pounds per harvested acre and the crop's development is late.

Sept. 1
No, no, not La Niña
Cotton producers may be looking at a wet harvest, according to government climatologists who are now predicting a strong La Niña this year.

"Our new forecasts reflect our belief of a rapid onset of a substantial La Niña," says Dr. Robert E Livezey of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. "In broad terms," Livezey says, "the major implication for the southern tier of states is for wetter-than-normal conditions for the fall and winter and mostly warmer than normal as well." Livezey's forecasts are updated regularly on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction website at http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov.

La Niña, a cooling of the ocean surface in the southern Pacific off the coast of Peru, is the opposite of El Niño, which disrupted global weather patterns during the past year. El Niño frequently is followed within a year by La Niña.

The impact of La Niña on cotton harvest will depend on when where you are and when your crop is done. Consider these maps from the Climate Diagnostics Center. The maps show the risk of precipitation extremes for the three-month periods July-September, August-October and September-November, which encompass most of the cotton harvesting in the United States each year. The maps are presented full size to preserve details, but they will require scrolling both left-right and up-down. Keep in mind, these maps predict risk of weather extremes, not rainfall amounts.

According to the maps, the Southeastern states reaching into Texas -- but not as far as the Plains have a risk of greater-than-normal rainfall July-September. In August-October, the risk of wet weather decreases in the Southeast, and the risk of drier-than-normal weather sets in across the Southwest. In September-November, extreme risk of dry weather is expected to cover California's Imperial Valley, all of Arizona, most of New Mexico and east and central Texas, as well as large parts of Mississippi and Louisiana.

You can see other combinations of months and see temperature predictions at this CDC site: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~cas/atlas.html

Links to the world of cotton
As the Land of Cotton continues to grow, it becomes necessary to link to additional sites. The links, which add life to the site, seem to have taken on a life of their own. Their number reached critical mass last week and the adult links began reproducing. Soon little links were crawling out of the home page and popping up all over the place.

To regain control, Land of Cotton has built a link nursery and corralled the babies into categories. Some of the older links are there too, keeping watch over the babies. As the new links grow and mature, they'll have opportunities to strut their stuff on the home page, and maybe even become the Bookmark of the Week. And, of course, the old reliables will come back out from time to time. There's no reason to think the links will stop multiplying, so visit the nursery often.

Oklahoma gets disaster designation
Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman has designated 66 of Oklahoma's 77 counties as disaster areas due to drought and excessive heat. Only the northeastern corner of the state has escaped serious agricultural losses from the drought, according to the Agriculture Department.

The National Weather Service predicts continued drought throughout the rest of the current growing season.

All Texas counties received the designation July 23 and Florida received the designation July 10.
Under this declaration, USDA makes low-interest loans available to eligible farmers in the designated counties and contiguous counties who have suffered a loss of 30 percent or more on any single crop.

"We know what this kind of disaster can mean to farmers, especially those already hurt by the current market conditions," said Glickman.  "We're going to do everything we can to help drought-afflicted farmers here and elsewhere in America."

Glickman is visiting visit Oklahoma and Texas this week to assess the damage. Today he will tour drought-stricken farmland in Newcastle, Okla.; Pauls Valley, Okla.; Thackerville, Okla.;  and
Decatur, Texas. On Wednesday, he plans to visit  a farm in Navasota, Texas, and participate in a roundtable discussion on the economic impact of the drought at Texas A&M University in College Station.

Disaster aid for Texas farmers
President Clinton has made disaster assistance available to Texas farmers suffering losses because of this summer's drought. Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman has designated the entire state as an agricultural disaster and plans to tour the state in the next few days.

Many areas of Texas have received less than a third of their normal annual rainfall, and soil conditions in the entire state are classified as "severely" to "extremely dry," according to USDA. Climatologists with the National Weather Service and the national Climate Prediction Center predict continued drought for the duration the current growing season.

USDA's Risk Management Agency estimates that more than 14 million acres of insured crops have been damaged by the drought, and that total insurance claims for crops covered by federal crop insurance could reach as high as $700 million.

"We can't make it rain, but we can extend help to farmers who are suffering losses through no fault of their own," said Clinton. "This administration will move as quickly as possible to get assistance to qualifying agricultural producers."

USDA spells how to qualify and the restrictions that apply to the loans:
Under this designation, USDA's Farm Service Agency makes available low-interest loans to eligible farmers who have lost of 30 percent or more on any single crop. Qualifying producers must be creditworthy, unable to obtain credit elsewhere, and have adequate collateral to secure the loan.

USDA expects a large number of requests for assistance under the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program. This program, which is administered by FSA, provides payments to growers of crops damaged by a natural disaster when crop insurance is not available. To help handle the heavy load of NAP requests, FSA has approved for Texas a Critical Loss Designation, which allows the agency's county office employees to carry out preliminary inspections to clear pending notices of loss under the program. Because such duties normally are performed only by contractors, this will allow for quicker response times.

FSA also authorized emergency haying and grazing of CRP acreage in counties with significant losses in hay and pasture production. Producers cannot both hay and graze the same CRP land. USDA's Natural Resources Conservation Service is providing haying and grazing plans for producers.

Farmers and ranchers can request that the NRCS State Conservationist give them an emergency waiver for Environmental Quality Incentives Program cost-share contract applications before they are approved by the FSA committee. This waiver will allow specific farmers to start their
conservation practices such as livestock water pipelines and irrigation systems immediately to save crops or livestock, without becoming ineligible for the contract, if selected.

"We're going into action to make sure that Texas farmers have access to assistance as soon as possible," Glickman said. "USDA employees and all administration officials will do everything they can to serve agricultural producers in Texas with speed and effectiveness."

Farmers and ranchers who have suffered damages are encouraged to contact their local USDA Service Centers or FSA county offices for further information. These are listed in telephone books under "U.S. Government, Department of Agriculture. Farmers who have crop losses should notify their crop insurance agent immediately.

Russell restructuring will cost 4,000 jobs
Russell Corp. has announced a major restructuring plan that will cut 4,000 jobs, close 25 facilities and relocate company headquarters from Alexander City, Ala., to Atlanta. The plan is to be implemented over three years, with a “substantial charge” expected in the third quarter of this year. The company expects the plan ultimately will save $100 million to $125 million.

Russell Corp., a major consumer of high-quality U.S.-grown cotton, manufactures activewear, casualwear and athletic uniforms under brand names including Russell Athletic, Jerzees and Cross Creek. The Fortune 500 company has been in Alexander City since 1902.

Elements of the plan include: closing approximately 25 of the company’s 90 worldwide facilities over the next three years, including selected manufacturing plants, distribution centers and offices; expanding production outside the United States; consolidating the licensed products business; disposing of owned shopping center real estate; reorganizing the corporate structure; establishing a dual headquarters in the metropolitan Atlanta area; and other cost-savings activities. It is anticipated that approximately 4,000 positions will be eliminated. A portion of the savings will be reinvested in consumer marketing in order to build long-term sales and profits.

“To remain competitive in the market, we have to focus our efforts on reducing costs, increasing our
spending on consumer marketing, and improving our return on investment,” said Jack Ward,
who in April was installed as Russell’s new chairman, president and chief executive officer. “We have to ensure that we are producing the highest quality products at the lowest possible cost. From a financial standpoint, we must produce consistent earning growth.”

“Every aspect of this plan is designed to make Russell stronger and more stable for the long run,”
Ward said. “Our new structure, for example, will be responsive to both our financial and consumer markets and will create an organization that prepares Russell for future growth. We plan to employ strategic business units in order to align our organization with our markets, and the consumer.
All of our efforts going forward focus on making Russell Corp. a leader in the athletic, sportswear and casualwear apparel categories.”

Details of the plan will be released over the coming months, according to the company, after implementation steps have been developed. Employees who will be impacted by the changes will be eligible for a severance package that has been substantially improved from past practices and an assistance program aimed at helping employees replace their earnings. “Obviously, we’ve not made every decision at this point,” Ward added. “Our goal is to communicate with our financial partners, employees and communities each step of the way.”

Russell’s second-quarter earnings were $6.56 million, or $0.18 per share, down from $8.11 million in the second quarter of 1997, or 22 cents per share. The company’s common stock (NYSE symbol RML) closed Wednesday at 29-5/8, down 7/16.

Delta crop needs potassium
After a visit to the Mississippi Delta in mid-July, plant physiologist Jack Mauney is concerned that the crop is deficient in potassium, a nutrient necessary to set bolls. Here’s his report:

By Jack Mauney
The crop in Mississippi looks wonderful. That along U.S. 61 just south of Leland looks as pretty as any crop ever photographed, in my opinion. It is well fruited with about 8-10 bolls per plant already and three weeks of fruiting still possible. It may cut out before three weeks have expired in places where irrigation is weak or fertility has run out. Dryland field which were blooming near the top before the rains have started growing again. It is not clear whether those acres will have time to set some additional flowers and bolls before mid-August.

Which brings me to the real subject: The whole Delta portion of Mississippi looks potassium deficient. The symptoms are in early stage right now, but will progress as the boll load continues to grow and weather stresses progress. The leaf analyses I saw show K at 1.2 percent to 1.4 percent. That is considered in the deficient, but not critical, level (1.5 percent is sufficient and 1.0 percent is critical). I feel that the cause of this widespread deficiency is the early onset of heavy boll loading. These bolls are putting a lot of stress on the K distribution within the plant. Potassium is generally moved from leaves into bolls when the bolls demand it.

Aggressive growers are flying on foliar applications of Potassium either as KCl or as KNO3 at about 4 pounds per acre in 4 gallons of water. The research I have found indicates that KCl is just as good a source as KNO3 and is quite a lot cheaper. The materials are available already mixed and ready to go or in dry form to be mixed on site.

In prior years, the foliar sprays were able to retard the decline of leaf K levels but not completely reverse the symptoms. It is a very difficult task to get enough K absorbed by the leaves. Sprays should be made during humid portions of the day (early or late hours) so that the residence time of the carrier is as long as possible. To aid absorption, the spray mix should also include a small amount of ammonium sulfate or urea, as is done to enhance activity of herbicide sprays.

Dr. Mauney is one of the (he won’t let me say THE)  world’s leading cotton physiologists. Since retiring from USDA’s Western Cotton Research Lab in Phoenix, he now consults directly with growers.
 

Why aren't bolls setting?
Mauney is seeing a different problem in Arizona, sterile flowers, which may be more common in other states during this hot summer. Here's his advice to members of Cotton-L, the Cotton Industry Discussion Group:

By Jack Mauney
I am seeing sterile flowers in some fields in Arizona.  This is heat related, so I would expect that other areas will see this as the season progresses. Don't freak out! There is little to be done in the
short run to alleviate the symptoms.

What happens is that three weeks before the flower blooms, the young flower bud (pinhead square stage or younger) is developing the pollen initials. If that square experiences high temperature (above 95 degrees plant leaf temperature) the pollen doesn't form correctly and the flower will be sterile when it opens.

Here, we can cycle through these symptoms as we enter and leave water stress in an irrigation cycle. As water stress increases, the plant leaf temperature increases because of lack of evaporative cooling. Where you have experienced heat indices of over 100 during these last weeks, you may see this occurring.

The flowers produced after a rain or under low stress or lower temperatures should be fertile.  So every day may have a different patterns of fertility.  Don't give up, and think ahead!
 

Drought is here to stay
Can we expect a break in the drought in Texas or even in parts of the state this summer? “No,” said Dr. Robert E Livezey, of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in an online interview with Land of Cotton.

Is the drought over in the Southeast, then? No again, said Livezey.
“After a return to more normal rainfall this month and through the fall,” he said, “we do expect the winter to return to dry conditions in the Southeast.”

In fact, Livezey now expects dry conditions in the Southwest — and possibly all across the South — to hang around through May of next year.

From a special report, “Southeast Drought/Heatwave,” on the CPC website:
"Long-range outlooks issued at the Climate Prediction Center suggest a continuation during July of warmer and drier than normal conditions across Texas, and a continuation of warmer than normal
conditions in Florida and portions of the Southeast. The seasonal outlook for July-September also indicates warmer than normal conditions across the Southwest, Texas and southern Florida.

“The latest long-range seasonal outlook suggests drier-than-normal conditions for the Southwest
from September 1998 through May 1999. The outlook also suggests the likelihood that these drier-than-normal conditions will expand eastward during the 1998/99 winter season to encompass Texas, the Gulf Coast, Florida and the Southeast. This outlook indicates the potential for serious long-term drought in these states if summertime rainfall remains deficient."

How extraordinary are these conditions?
“They are unusual,” Livezey said, “in the sense that the initiation of the drought during the spring was a previously unseen consequence of a decaying El Niño , while continuation of the drought is seen as a consequence of La Niña .

“Remnants of El Niño were still dictating the patterns well into June, but probably not very much right now,” he explained. “Most observers believe conditions can now be classifed as at least those of a weak to moderate La Niña , and the system continues to evolve toward a more major episode.

How will we know when La Niña arrives?

“Monitor our releases.” (Now that’s what the world needs more of — a scientist with a sense of humor.) Still, the advice is good. The CPC releases are available online at http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov/
 

Weevil eradication takes a hit in the Plains
The announcement of what amounts to a going-out-of-business sale at Plains Cotton Growers Boll Weevil Field Office is a clear indication that the boll weevil has a long way to go before it's eradicated from Texas.

"PCG's Boll Weevil Field Office has been closed down for some time," Roger Haldenby said in announcing the sale, which is today and Friday. "The lease is coming to an end and most of the equipment, furniture and used traps stored there must be disposed of."

What's going on here, Roger? No funding? No hope? No need?

"None, little, much," came his reply.

"We had a huge, successful, economical, effective program going in 1995. Funding for the program was collected by the Texas Boll Weevil Eradication Foundation, and PCG carried out operation.

"A lawsuit from 10 Hale County farmers in fall of '95 dragged on through the courts, and 50 percent  of '96 collections went unpaid. That crippled the '96 program. Then a decision by the Texas Supreme Court in '97 killed the funding method. Rehashing of the law in the Texas
Legislature '97 called for a split in the High Plains Zone with no program in the north and a hurried vote in the south. The vote failed and left us with no organized efforts against the weevil.

"In '98, our High Plains cotton farmers have lost the dryland crop in its entirety. The irrigated crop, though looking excellent in many fields, is costing a fortune to water with many, many wells just not having capacity to keep up. The hot, dry conditions (25-26 days with temps over 100!) are stressing cotton plants and cotton producers to the limit.

"Boll weevil numbers seen in this spring's trapping projects were higher and more widespread than we have seen them, even in the falls of '95 and '96.

"In summary: Funding-None ... Hope-Little ... Need-Much."
 

Crop prospects looking grim
USDA's July 13 Crop Progress report shows continued deterioration of the U.S. cotton crop across the Belt, although some growers in the Midsouth and Southeast are hopeful that recent rain will bring some improvement.

Five states reported overall improvement last week, as shown in the percentages deemed "good" or "excellent." New Mexico showed the greatest gain, with 67 percent now rated "good" or "excellent," compared with 49 percent a week earlier.

North Carolina rose from 59 percent rated "good" or "excellent" July 5 to 63 percent July 12. South Carolina, however, showed the greatest percent loss, with 30 percent of its crop rated "good" or "excellent" July 12, compared to 52 percent the previous week.

California's crop showed some improvement, with 10 percent now rated "good." A week earlier, 5 percent had been rated "good." None of the California crop has been rated excellent so far this season.

Click here for a table showing the state-by-state comparisons. Click here to see the complete report on USDA's website.

From Mississippi:
Here's Mississippi grower Sledge Taylor's take on current conditions:

"What a difference a week makes. Last week I thought it would never rain again, and this week I am wondering if it will ever stop long enough to spray. Rainfall totals varied from 4.5 to 6.5 inches from last Friday to Monday afternoon. The heaviest rain occurred early Monday morning at one location and must have been about 4 inches in a short period. Water  jumped across roads and broke ditch levees. I had several fields that had only about 6 inches of the top of the cotton above the water.

"But I am not complaining. Overall, the rain was beneficial, but boll shed is heavy, the moths seemed to follow the rain clouds. A wet forecast complicates insecticide sprays.

"This year is very similar to 1988 in our area. In 1988, we went 40 days from late May until the 13th of July without rain and with record high temps and then had heavy rain of 3.5 to 7.5 inches. This year we went about 35 days without rain and with high temps then heavy rain starting on the
10th of July.

In 1988 we had a few scattered showers in late July and No rain in the month of August.  And this year? As we all know is the crop is not made yet, and we have six weeks until the end of August."

From Georgia:
Clouds bring joy to South Georgia consultant Carl Hobbs:

"Well, it has finally happened to some degree in most of the area around here:  RAIN!  Anywhere from two drops to 6 inches across south Georgia, with about 1.5 inches being about the average that I have picked up in my gauges. It is too late on most of the dryland April cotton that has bloomed out the top, and late on the dryland May cotton that has done nothing for the last four weeks.

"Heat unit accumulation had been on pace much ahead of '97, with almost 1,700 DD60s since April 1, compared to less than 1,300 a year ago.  With the dry weather on top of that, look for pickers and gins to be running early."

"My heart and prayers go out to you good folks in west Texas, as I can see that your situation worse than what I see around here."

From Louisiana:
Northeast Louisiana crop consultant Roger Carter, of Agricultural Management Services Inc., reports:

"Rainfall from 0.3 inch to 1.5 inch fell on approximately 40 percent of our area. Much more rain is needed to turn crops around. Some areas have had only 2.2 inches since April 17, and much of that was in small (0.25 inch) showers that never met the moisture.

"Bollworm egg lay is continuing. Some budworm activity, but numbers are lower than normal because of extensive acreage planted to Bt cotton. Moth traps are catching 50/50 bollworms to budworms. Treating bollworms with light rates of pyrethroid. Will use Tracer at 1/60 gal/acre if budworms become predominant species.

"Weevil hot spots in a few places. Up to 40 percent square damage, but the average is less than 5 percent. Treating with methyl at 1/12 gal/acre.

"Fungus attacking aphids; however, several fields have been treated with Furadan at 1/16 gal/ac + 1/8 gal veg oil/acre.

"Plant bugs increasing rapidly. Adding Orthene at 1/3 lb/ac or Bidrin at 1/24 gal/acre where applicable. Spider mites beginning to appear around field borders.

"Cotton crop is 20 percent excellent, 20 percent good, and 60 percent fair to poor.

"In corn, no insect problems to report this week. Corn crop is 5 percent excellent, 15 percent good,
and 80 percent poor."

From Texas:
This report is from Texas A&M Ag Communications, forwarded by Roger Haldenby at Plains Cotton Growers:

Without substantial rains, this year's drought may be a worse disaster for Texas agriculture than the severe drought of 1996.

Texas Agricultural Extension Service economists estimate that the current drought will cause $1.5 billion in losses for farmers and ranchers and painfully squeeze $4.6 billion out of the Texas economy over the next 18 months.

This is three times the estimates the economists made only a month ago, and they say loss totals will only increase as the drought continues.

"This year's drought could easily wind up being worse than 1996 if we don't get significant rain soon," said Dr. Roland Smith, the Extension economist in College Station who helped compile estimates of drought losses reported from around the state.

Here are current estimated producer losses by commodity:

Cotton	$500 million
Corn	$225 million
Sorghum	$140 million
Forage Crops	$330 million
Horticultural Crops	$100 million
Livestock	$44 million
Added Livestock Feed Cost	$136 million
Projected Total Losses	$1,475 million

Production estimate drops
The Agriculture Department now projects 1998 U.S. cotton production will be 15.0 million bales, down 700,000 bales from its June estimate, a 4.5 percent drop. The new estimate is contained in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

The U.S. outlook for 1998-99 also shows lower mill use and exports. Tighter U.S. supplies are expected to constrain mill use to 11.0 million bales and exports to 5.0 million bales. Exports also are affected by lower anticipated world consumption, the report says. Ending stocks are projected at 3.0 million bales, about 19 percent of total use.

USDA: 12.9 million acres
The Department of Agriculture estimates that U.S. growers planned to plant 12.9 million acres to cotton this season. Few in the industry agree with that number, in light of low prices and unfavorable weather during planting season.

"All cotton plantings for 1998 are expected to total 12.9 million acres, 6 percent below 1997 and 12 percent less than the 1996 acreage," the report reads. "Upland accounts for 12.6 million acres, down 7 percent from last year. American-Pima acreage totaled 313,500 acres, one-fourth above last year's level. The increase in Pima plantings occurred in Texas, where 105,000 acres were planted, 73,000 acres more than in 1997. The majority of these additional acres were planted in areas which are not traditional Pima cotton producing areas."

The estimate represents a 300,000-acre drop in acres from USDA's March planting intentions estimate, but many growers and traders believe the reduction will be much higher.

A survey of Cotton-L members produced 20 predictions of the USDA estimate, averaging 12.53 million acres. The range was between 11.9 and 12.8864. While some made actual acreage estimates, however, others boosted their numbers artificially, believing USDA's final number would be high.

"Interestingly," points out Jim Nunn, of Nunn Cotton Co. in Brownsville, Tenn., "the average of the Cotton-L estimates was nearly the same as Jeff Wilson's FWN survey of 12.562 million acres."

"Since the USDA is sticking to their guns on a larger planted area than the trade thinks is there, the question remains: Who will the specs believe?" muses Cotton trader Barry Bean, of Peach Orchard, Mo.

July 16
It's a long road from Congress to cash
The congressional appropriation for boll weevil eradication is “still a long way from being actual cash distributed to programs,” says Roger Haldenby of Plains Cotton Growers.

“The president's original budget outlines had $4 million in direct funding for USDA's part in beltwide eradication. This was way below what is needed,” Haldenby explains. “The House ag subcommittee basically has reset that amount to the same level as last year, $16 million. This is the gross sum at the newly proposed federal level for all current BWEP programs, and has not, as yet, been subdivided for states or regions. Texas got about $7 million of the pie last  year and is probably hoping for the same, or more, again next year.

“As to the loan program, the new proposal doubles last year's loan capabilities of FSA. Last year's was around $48 million. This proposal is for $100 million. These loans are designed to be paid back over roughly seven years. They allow a boll weevil foundation that has established a mandatory assessment on growers through the referendum process to borrow money at a low interest rate from FSA to fund program operations and spread the repayment load over time. It's not grant money.”

And there are other hurdles to pass before the money will become available, Haldenby points out: “There's the House, the Senate and the president before it actually becomes real money available under a final budget.”

Assuming the full amount does come through, it’s still “just a drop in the bucket” of what Texas growers need, says Ken Egger, who serves on the BWEP grower committee for the Caprock zone, which includes Lubbock, Hockley and Crosby counties.

 “Even if the House measure is adopted, which is 2.5 times greater than the Senate's, $100 million (the loan portion) split up across the country leaves very little for each zone. I'm sure it will also be first come, first served, and I think that part of that money is already earmarked for ongoing zones.”

Egger points out that the grant portion of the bill, $16 million, won’t go far once it’s divided to cover the all states in the program.

Boll weevils, however, are not the biggest problem west Texas growers are facing just now, Egger says. Continued drought is making a crop failure look more certain each day.

“The crops that I have seen in this county are mostly lousy, even the irrigated. There is very little dryland up, and by the end of this hot spell, there won't be much of it left. Thrips have almost killed some stands because farmers were trying to cut costs, and I have seen at least four (center pivot irrigation) circles lost because of blowing sand.

“Coming home last night about 8:30, driving east with the sun behind my back, I thought it was raining about 30 miles east of me,” Egger says, “but looking at the sky I realized that without clouds it can't rain. It was dirt in the air for miles and miles and the way the sunlight was reflecting was causing it to look blue.” Click here for current weather conditions in the Lubbock area, or visit Steve Slovak's Texas Cotton Weather Page.

The fear for the west Texas crop is supporting the current market surge, which adds to the worries of Egger and his neighbors. “This area is a time bomb, if the market crashes and/or buyers renege on contracted cotton this fall, as happened last fall,” he says.

July 15
On the downslide
USDA's July 6 Crop Progress report shows the crop deteriorating in most states during the week of June 28-July 5. Despite scattered rainfall, lack of moisture continues to hamper the crop from Texas east to the Carolinas.

"Dryland fields in the southern Plains made slow progress and plants continued to lose squares and small bolls due to prolonged dry conditions," according to USDA's Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin for July 7.  "Along the western Gulf Coast," the report says, "bolls were rapidly opening and some fields were beginning to defoliate. Crop progress remained well behind the 5-year average in California, where temperatures remained slightly below normal."

California maintained its numbers from the previous week after showing some improvement over the June 22 report. The portion of the California crop reported as "very poor" remained at 10 percent, compared to 30 percent June 22. The report shows 5 percent of the California crop as "good," whereas none was reported "good" the previous week. None of the high-value California cotton is reported as "excellent."

Arizona showed the greatest improvement overall, with 16 percent of its crop reported as "excellent," up from 10 percent the previous week. Arizona has reported 3 percent as "very poor" for the past two weeks.

Missouri growers also appeared to have a better week, with 17 percent of their crop now reported as "excellent," compared to 9 percent a week ago. None of the Missouri crop is reported as "very poor."

Alabama's crop also showed some improvement. While 1 percent of the crop still is reported as "excellent," 26 percent is now said to be "good," compared to 17 percent the previous week. The portion of the crop reported as "very poor" in Alabama is 7 percent, down from 10 percent a week before. The thunderstorms that benefited the state's crop were scattered, and north Alabama grower Robert Cox says he hasn't had rain in four weeks.

In Texas, a quarter of the crop is now reported as "very poor," 5 percent more than the week before. Upper Gulf Coast grower Daniel Mascheck's assessment: "I'm already forgetting about this year."

The state that took the biggest hit last week, however, was Georgia, where 20 percent of the crop is now reported as "very poor," 5 percent more than in the previous week. The number reported as  "poor" rose to 27 percent from 16 percent a week earlier. The portion reported as "fair" dropped from 34 percent to 28 percent during the week; "good" went from 29 percent June 28 to 22 percent July 5, and "excellent" dropped from 6 percent to 3 percent last week.

Click here for a table showing the state-by-state comparisons. For the complete report, visit USDA's website at http://www.usda.gov/nass/.

Find this:  any language EnglishChineseCzechDanishDutchEstonianFinnishFrenchGermanGreekHebrewHungarianIcelandicItalianJapaneseKoreanLatvianLithuanianNorwegianPolishPortugueseRomanianRussianSpanishSwedish