The approval provides $100 million for boll weevil eradication loan programs and over $16 million in direct funding, according to Roger Haldenby of Plains Cotton Growers.

"We're not sure how it will be divided and how much each zone gets, but it is a huge shot in the arm for us," says Lynn Bartlett, who serves on a producer steering committee for the Texas Department of Agriculture and who has been working to get boll weevil eradication in place in the Rolling Plains bordering Oklahoma. "Until now it
was all self-funded, and that seemed to be a problem getting financed for the program."

"Right now we are in the process of developing a budget and moving on to a referendum. There are several active zones in Texas, with some nearing completion.  I know its frustrating for our neighbors and hard to understand, but with the size of our state and several different climates within one state, it's hard to just up and go to running. I do feel confident that by 1999 we will be up and going," Bartlett says.

Plains need more rain
West Texas is looking at a potential disaster from lack of rain. The Lubbock Avalanche-Journal reported last week that although some areas received as much as an inch and a half of rain Wednesday night, for many farmers it may be too little, too late to make a cotton crop.

In the report, Shawn Wade of Plains Cotton Growers Inc. cites the potential for losses of more than a million acres and up to $1 billion from all crops. “Even with the rain, the losses could total several hundred million dollars,” the report says.

In addition to the crop loss, range management experts are warning residents to expect to deal with wildfires.

Every county in the Panhandle and the South Plains are in a governor-declared state of emergency, and officials are looking to President Clinton to declare 207 counties a disaster zone, making the state eligible for federal firefighting equipment and personnel, as well as crop loans for local farmers, the Avalanche-Journal reports.

For the full report, visit  the Avalanche-Journal’s website, at
http://www.lubbockonline.com/stories/061198/0611980020.shtml
Look for updates at Lubbock Online.

The best place to get current Texas weather is Steve Slovak’s Texas Weather Page at http://members.aol.com/sslovak212/texas.html

For weather in other cotton-growing areas, Steve has a more general Cotton Weather Page at http://members.aol.com/sslovak212/cotton.html

June 22
Where are all those acres?
With U.S. cotton planting finished, the Department of Agriculture is sticking with its March planting estimate of  13.215 million acres, a 4.3 percent drop from 1997 planting.  The latest figures are contained in the June 12 Crop Production report. Abandonment in 1997 totaled 538,000 acres, but the 13.270 million acres harvested in 1997 was more than U.S. growers planted this  spring. Speculation is that abandonment will be higher this year, as drought in West Texas has insurance adjusters readying their pens. Rainfall in the High Plains and Rolling Plains last week delayed some crop failure decisions until June 25.

‘Great start’ in the Delta
“The Delta is for sure off to a great start, at least most all the North Delta,” reports crop consultant Joe Townsend, who works in northwest Mississippi.  “We've got cotton at 14 nodes, and will probably see a few blooms next week. We appear to be three weeks ahead of a year ago.”

Both the north and south Delta have benefited from rain, but with the return of dry weather, the fast-growing crop has slowed somewhat, plant physiologist Jack Mauney reports. “Though it was planted late in the north, there is a lot of catching up going on,” he says.

Visiting Delta farms last week, Mauney saw plants with first squares at  fifth nodes, in most cases, and growth of 10-12 total nodes.  “Some old barn sites and places that were planted first will have flowers by June 20,” he says.

“Square loss is acceptable. There has been some thrips damage that disturbs locals but seems acceptable to me because we always have more than that in Arizona.” Mauney lives in Phoenix, but consults in Mississippi.

Mauney observes that the weather pattern in the Delta during the last two weeks has created large plants with relatively small squares. “There has been little wind until some of the storms (the first week of June) and rather constant blowing last week.  That has produced a rapidly growing plant with squares that are smaller than one would expect for plant size and square position.  I think that's because the vegetative leaves and squares have independent growth cycles. The plants have slowed their growth, and that is as it should be.”

Drought returned to east-central Louisiana a week after 1.5-2.5 inches of rain, crop consultant Roger Carter reports. Lack of adequate moisture is stressing young cotton on mixed to heavy soils, he says.

Most of the cotton in his area is in the 10-12 leaf stage, Carter says, and he predicts first blooms will appear by the end of the week on some cotton.

Plant bug numbers are high, and overwintered boll weevils are still emerging, Carter says. “Most fields susceptible to heavy weevil problems have received two pinhead square applications.” Some fields have bollworm/budworm eggs, and trap catches indicate that both species of moth are present. Spider mites and armyworms are currently scarce, Carter says, although “a few aphids are beginning to establish colonies.  So far, no cotton locally has been treated for aphids.”

Ready for Roundup?
Growers making their first applications of Roundup to glyphosate-tolerant cotton are asking hard questions about rates and timing. After hearing stories about the problems some growers in the Mississippi Delta had with lost or misshapen bolls in the Roundup Ready varieties last year, growers are understandably wary, and their consultants may be at a loss as to how to advise them.

Consultant Joe Townsend, who works in the Delta around Clarksdale, Miss., reports that of his six clients who planted Roundup Ready cotton in 1997, all had yield reductions and maturity delays. "I can assure you, I saw a 250-pound yield reduction by using a single sloppy directed spray of 1 pint per acre of Roundup Ultra. Highest rates or bad timing was not the problem."

At the Beltwide Cotton Conferences in January, Dr. Tom Kerby of Delta and Pine Land and Dr. Richard Voth of Monsanto described how the technology works.

“Roundup Ready cotton has a gene (CP4) which has been added to cotton which provides the plant an alternative pathway to produce the required essential amino acids. Roundup Ready cotton is very tolerant of Roundup in vegetative tissues. Leaves do not show symptoms and carbohydrate production appears to be unaffected by Roundup application.

“However, Roundup Ready cotton does not have reproductive (floral) tolerance to Roundup. Therefore, Roundup Ready cotton will only tolerate a minimum amount of Roundup in the plant when it begins square development. The product can alter pollen development with the result that flowers will not properly pollinate if Roundup concentration is high in reproductive tissues. When Roundup is present above threshold levels during square development, the small boll may abort due to poor pollination.

“For this reason, the label has only allowed over-the-top applications through the four-leaf stage of cotton development. Post-directed applications after the four-leaf stage should avoid leaf contact.”

In earlier tests, boll shedding had not been observed after over-the-top applications to cotton at the four-leaf stage. Kerby and Voth attributed the 1997 problem, in part, to unusually cold weather during cotton’s critical growth stage in April, May and June.  “An average decrease of 4 degrees over the three-month period represents a large departure from normal and resulted in slow cotton growth until temperatures warmed up near the end of June.”

Kerby and Voth asserted that neither the use of Roundup Ultra nor the presence of the Roundup Ready gene was associated with abnormal bolls, and they said differences in top-crop productivity were the result of agronomic practices.

Townsend said that with hot, sunny weather this spring, "I suspect ... the gene silencing will be minimal," but he remains unconvinced that the technology is appropriate for cotton.

Texas grower Lynn Bartlett, on the other hand, had no complaints about his Roundup Ready in 1997. "We raised 700 acres of the RR varieties last year, and saw nothing but great results. All of the yields were above normal and grades good.

"All of my acres had 1 quart over the top, and some hot spots had 2 quarts over the top. It has given us a tool to finally go after our perennial weed problems and stop cultivating all summer.

"Around 75 percent of the cotton around us has been planted to RR. Fleahoppers, weevils, worms, and sandstorms seem to like it as much as conventional cotton, but I walked all summer and saw nothing of any Roundup damage.

"I'd encourage it for anyone," Bartlett said. "Just follow the labels."

Kerby and Voth announced label changes for this year as a result of the problems experienced in the Delta in 1997. The amended label would reflect that:

Applications later than the four-leaf stage have the potential to cause shedding of small bolls if the spray contacts plant foliage.

A minimum of two additional nodes of plant development is needed between applications as well as the minimum 10 days.

Hola La Niña
El Niño’s temper cooled quickly during May, but this week climatologists for the first time began predicting La Niña would show up this winter.

The latest forecasts, issued June 9 by the National Centers for Environmental Protection, indicate “a cold episode will likely develop during the next six months and continue through the northern 1998-99 winter.”

During the last several months, the sea surface temperature anomalies declined in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, according to the national Climate Prediction Center. “As a result, colder-than-normal subsurface water spread eastward, and the warmer-than-normal waters became increasingly confined to a rather thin layer near the ocean surface and to the region near the west coast of South America.”

The easterlies were crucial to breaking up El Niño conditions, the climatologists said. As the winds blew the warm surface water eastward, “colder-than-normal subsurface waters rose to the ocean surface.” Near longitude 120°W, sea surface temperature anomalies “dropped from +3°C at the beginning of May to near -3°C by the end of the month, they said.

What can we expect from La Niña? The CPC explains on its ENSO web page that during La Niña episodes, changes in the distribution of tropical rainfall affect the position and intensity of jet streams and the behavior of storms outside the tropics in both the northern and southern hemispheres. This results in abnormal patterns of temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world.

The long-range outlook for cotton-producing states shows temperatures 5 percent to 15 percent above normal for the Southwest and Southeast through August. The CPC’s analysis of the available data did not yield a confident forecast for the central cotton-growing region of northern and eastern Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and western Arkansas during the summer months.

Rainfall from June through August is expected to be 5 percent to 15 percent below normal in Arizona and New Mexico, the TransPecos and High Plains of Texas, and the East Coast cotton-producing states. The CPC has not predicted anomalous precipitation for other parts of the Cotton Belt over the summer.

From September through November,  temperatures are expected to be 5 percent to 15 percent above normal in California and the desert Southwest, as well as in south Texas and the Carolinas. Anomalous temperatures for the rest of the Cotton Belt are not predicted, and anomalous precipitation levels during the period are not predicted anywhere in the Cotton Belt.

Weekly updates are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage.

A trader's perspective
 Richard Drachenberg has a cotton trader's heart and a grower's history. As owner of Drachenberg Trading Co. in Lubbock, he offers some interesting observations on the trend in cotton futures prices since January and who benefits from federal programs designed to keep U.S. cotton competitive. Drachenberg has put together several charts of great interest to cotton producers. Take a look...  but be patient. With several charts, this page takes awhile to load.

Richard will add new charts whenever he takes a notion. It's always worth a look, if only to see "The Drachen."

June 8
'The crop's planted; please send rain'
Interest in planting progress gave way to concern about the growth of the crop during the past week, and as dry conditions persist over the South, the most frequent question in the last few days has been, "Where's the rain?"

Across the Cotton Belt, growers had planted 76 percent of the 1998 crop as of May 24, according to USDA's crop progress report. Overall, planting is slightly ahead of last year and the five-year average.

While no state had completely finished planting, Louisiana was 99 percent complete, Missouri was 98 percent, Arizona was 97 percent, and Arkansas was 96 percent done.

Louisiana growers, crop in the ground, are desperate for moisture. Jerry Williams enters this plea: "We here in Northeast Louisiana. have not had any since the last of April ... send some please."

Tennessee jumped from 45 percent to 86 percent in one week. In the heart of Tennessee's cotton country, broker Jim Nunn says growers in his area were blessed with "1.5 inches of perfect rain by 1:30 p.m. Tuesday."

Oklahoma has the smallest percentage of its crop planted, 51 percent, but jumped from 19 percent the previous week.

In Stillwater, Okla., Gordon Gouger reports a little welcome rain falling Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. He doesn't hold out much hope for the corn crop, however. "Seems a lot of people are planting corn and insuring it. Guaranteed $150 per acre and almost guaranteed no harvest cost. It is almost a sure thing to burn up in August," Gouger says.

Rain has been needed all over Texas, where growers have planted 57 percent of their crop. Lynn Bartlett in Wellington reports some rain fell Tuesday in the Rolling Plains, but in the Upper Gulf Coast, Daniel Maschek says, "We haven't had any rain in about six weeks or more. Cotton still looks good, but corn and milo are going fast. We still have people planting cotton for insurance purposes, and we have late soybeans and peanuts to plant. We won't plant without rain! Three years in a row is a bit too much and we may lose many farmers in the area. Not many banks want to finance four losing years!"

Consultant Carl Hobbs says it's "VERY dry in South Georgia. In my three-county area, approximately 80 miles above the Florida line, I haven't recorded a drop of rain in 19
days, and then, only 0.2 inches in some. This is getting serious. Cotton planted the last 14 days is not coming up satisfactorily, at all ... and a lot of it has been planted the last 14 days.

Similar story in Alabama, says Bob Goodman: "It's so dry in Alabama, the ground is cracking open and there are some reports of cattle and small children falling into the cracks. (Only) 20 percent
chance today. If I hear one more weatherperson cheerfully pipe 'another beautiful sunshiney day with no rain in the forecast,' I am going to commit mayhem. Send us some rain."

Then there's this report from Lula, Miss., consultant Joe Townsend: "No significant rain has fallen in the North Delta area in three weeks or so. The dust is so thick I can't remember what color my truck is.

"However, our cotton is growing off very, very fast. I saw my first squares (Tuesday) on four different farms, and all this cotton emerged in May. It appears that all the air conditioners on the pickers will need to be in good working order. We're setting up for a very quick crop. This may or may not be good, just fast.

"Most of the cotton has come up without any rain, and all the pre-emerge herbicides have not worked.  This means the Staple and Buctril folks are about to have a very good year.  I don't remember morning-glories having quite as good a start ever as this year.

"If our cotton acreage is down in this part of the Delta, it's only very little. Many folks are learning why dryland corn is not necessarily a good crop bet.  Borers are horrible, and its beginning to burn up.

"Order rain."

Round 2 to Mycogen
A Superior Court judge in San Diego has upheld Mycogen Corp.'s $174.9 million damage award in its lawsuit against Monsanto Co. over access to genetically engineered genes for corn, cotton and canola.

In a written ruling issued May 21, Judge Herbert B. Hoffman denied Monsanto’s motions for a new trial or modification of a March 20 jury verdict awarding Mycogen damages resulting from Monsanto’s delay in allowing access to its gene technology conferring insect resistance with Bt and tolerance to the glyphosate herbicide Roundup.

According to a press release on Mycogen’s website, in 1989, Monsanto granted options to license the technology to Lubrizol Genetics, an entity in which Mycogen acquired a controlling interest in 1992. When Mycogen sought to exercise the options in 1993, Monsanto refused and Mycogen filed suit in Superior Court in San Diego. In 1994, that court granted Monsanto’s motion for summary judgment upholding its refusal, and Mycogen appealed that ruling. In 1996, the California Court of Appeals reversed that ruling and Mycogen filed the damage suit that was decided on March 20, 1998. During the trial, Judge Hoffman ruled that Monsanto had breached the agreement as a matter of law, and that the sole issue before the jury was the amount of damages suffered by Mycogen as a result.

Monsanto’s website has not posted any information on the latest development in the lawsuit.

Mycogen is majority owned by Dow AgroSciences LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of The Dow Chemical Co. Click here for Mycogen's stock performance in the last month.

Monsanto is in the process of acquiring Delta and Pine Land Co., a leading cottonseed provider. It already owns Stoneville Pedigreed Seed, another major cottonseed company. Click here for Monsanto's stock performance in the last month.
June 1
11 percent drop in production expected
It will come as no surprise to growers struggling to get their crops planted that the Department of Agriculture is projecting a crop about 11 percent smaller than in 1997. Still, the USDA’s Cotton and Wool Outlook report, available only via Internet, is worthwhile reading, especially if you print it out and read it on paper. Highlights of the report, issued Wednesday, include:
 

The report contains the Agriculture Department's first official production forecast: U.S. cotton growers are expected to harvest 16.7 million bales in 1998. The projection is based on USDA’s planting estimate of 13.2 million acres and assumes average abandonment and yield. Growers are expected to harvest 12.3 million acres, based on the 1988-97 national average abandonment rate. Yield is projected at 650 pounds per harvested acre, putting the crop 11 percent lower than the final 1997 production of 18.79 million bales.

California growers are unlikely to meet their yield expectations this year, according to the USDA’s Leslie Meyer in a special article relating planting progress to yield.

Cool, wet weather associated with El Nino has delayed planting in California, Meyer says. The report compares USDA’s Weekly Crop Progress reports for 1987 through 1997 to determine the relationship between California's cotton planting progress and the state's upland cotton yield. The math is pretty technical, but after explaining how the analysis was done, Meyer projects California's upland cotton yield average at 931 pounds per harvested acre. “Chances are two out of three that California's upland yield will range between 865 and 997 pounds,” the report says.

“While these yield estimates are well below California's 1987-97 average upland yield of nearly 1,200 pounds, a similar divergence from ‘normal’ planting progress occurred as recently as 1995. Cotton planting was also reported only 60 percent complete as of May 8, 1995, resulting in the same in-sample yield projection of 931 pounds per harvested acre. Subsequently, California's final upland yield for 1995 fell within the range noted above, averaging a relatively low 953 pounds.

“Planting progress in California seems to be a significant factor influencing yield,” Meyer concludes from a comparison of actual yields during years when 95 percent of California's crop was planted near May 10. Five years in the last decade met this criterion. The expected yield for those years was 1,221 pounds per harvested acre, with a range of 1,134 to 1,308 pounds. Actual yields fell within this range in three of the five years, and in the other two years, yields exceeded the upper bound, producing the largest yields on record. Upland yields in the state varied from 1,153 to 1,359 pounds per harvested acre during these five years.

In another special article, Stephen MacDonald writes that demand for cotton products in Europe and North America is continuing to grow despite reduced consumer demand in Southeast Asia. “World cotton consumption can be expected to continue growing during 1998-99,” he writes. “The developed countries as a group remain a growing market for textile products despite the economic slowdown in the developing world.”

If El Niño's here, can La Niña be far behind?
If we make it through planting season, the U.S. Cotton Belt will have survived another El Nino — barely. Its impact on the 1997 crop shows up in the current USDA ginning report: Ginners estimated that some 32,578 bales were left to be ginned after the March survey, nearly three times the figure for the previous year and 65 times the number from the 1995 crop. Chalk that up to frequent heavy rains during harvest season, courtesy of El Nino. The question now is what effect it will have on the 1998 crop.

El Nino, Spanish for “the little boy,” has an equally evil twin sister, La Nina. Together, they can have a greater impact on agriculture than either one alone. Assuming growers decide to plant cotton and are able to plant on time, most should plant into a soil profile with plenty of moisture. After that, the coming impact appears to hinge on whether El Nino 1997 is followed by La Nina in 1998.

El  Nino, a periodic warming of the water temperature in a spot in the southern Pacific, affects weather around the world. It typicallyrobs Australia and India of their expected rainfall and dumps it on the United States and parts of Latin America. The effect generally peaks in late fall. The national Climate Prediction Center expects “warm episode” conditions associated with El Nino to continue through May, with “recurring periods of significant storm activity and precipitation across California and the southern tier of states.” In plain English, the U.S. Cotton Belt can expect El Nino to keep up his tantrum through May.

After that, it's up to La Nina. She is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the same area of ocean, and usually brings dry conditions to the southern United States from October through April, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics. In years when La Nina has quickly followed El Nino — 1954, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1988 and 1995 — western states have seen increased rainfall and the central part of the country had less rainfall than normal, but most of the Cotton Belt did not have extremes in either direction.

Temperatures in those years were higher than normal over a huge part of the country including the Midwest and the north central states, but were cooler than normal in the Northwest and the Northeast. The only areas of extreme temperatures in the Cotton Belt were parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and the Florida panhandle, which were hot, and south Texas, which was cooler than normal.

To the extent that yield correlates with weather, few patterns emerge. In the last five El Nino-La Nina pairs, yields improved slightly in the La Nina years of 1964, 1970 and 1973. Yields dropped significantly on the last two occasions of El Nino-La Nina, down more than 12 percent in 1988 and close to 25 percent in 1995. Both of those La Nina-year drops, however, followed record yields set in El Nino years.

Is La Nina on her way? The Climate Prediction Center doesn't know yet. The last two El Ninos were followed quickly by La Ninas, as were five out of the last nine. However, over the last century, La Nina has come the year before El Nino more frequently than she has followed, according to a list of warm and cold episode years on the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration website. The 1997-98 sea surface temperature pattern, the gauge by which El Nino and La Nina are measured, doesn't look much like those for 1991-92 or 1994-95, but then those don't look much like each other. The current El Nino pattern looks most like the 1982-83 event, which was not followed by La Nina.

With all the factors impacting cotton planting and production, no one appears ready to predict how the weather will play in the 1998 drama. A forecast by the Climate Prediction Center through the end of the year shows the surface water temperature dropping, but not to La Nina levels. El Nino and La Nina are all over the Web, so you can make your own predictions. The best information regarding their potential impact on agriculture is at the NOAA site, the Joint Agricultural Weather Facility homepage and a USDA page devoted to El Nino and U.S. Agriculture.

Planting is virtually complete in Arizona, with 95 percent of the crop in the ground. This is still slightly behind last year on the same date, when planting was 97 percent complete, and the five-year average of 96 percent.

Louisiana growers also have planted 95 percent of their crop, considerably ahead of last year’s 87 percent and the five-year average of 88 percent.

Missouri growers made up a lot of ground in the last week, going from 16 percent planted on May 10 to 58 percent planted on May 17, within 1 percent of the state’s five-year average.

Oklahoma growers have planted only 19 percent of their crop, but that rate matches last year on the same date and is 1 percent ahead of the five-year average.

North Mississippi grower Sledge Taylor reports that nearly all the cotton his area is planted now. USDA reports Mississippi cotton 72 percent planted statewide.

California growers have planted 85 percent of their crop, but that does not account for any cotton that may be replanted after an emerged crop was damaged by wind and hail.

El Nino has given growers across the Cotton Belt a needed break in the rain pattern. After several weeks of rain or ground too wet to support planting equipment, a week of hot sunshine brought the planters out in force.

“The moisture situation changed quickly,” Taylor says of the Mississippi crop. “We went from too wet to too dry in about 14 days. There are small areas in fields and some entire fields that will need a rain to emerge.

“The majority of cotton is emerging and looking great,” Taylor says. “All cotton has not come to a stand, but by Wednesday, it should be up.”

Taylor said favorable weather did not appear to be increasing cotton acreage. “I do not know of anyone that planted any extra cotton due to the good weather.”

North Louisiana consultant Roger Carter reports that 65 percent of the cotton in his area “looks good to excellent; 15 percent fair; and 20 percent poor to very poor with poor stands and dry conditions being the culprits.”

Uniformity will be difficult to achieve in this crop. “The earliest emerged cotton is at 6th node; the youngest is yet to emerge,” Carter says.

Some acreage, approximately 20 percent, Carter says, is being sprayed for thrips — although much of it had in-furrow insecticides. Carter also reports boll weevils, budworms, bollworms, beet armyworms and cutworms are active in Louisiana cotton, although plant bugs are not numerous.
 

Delta and Pine Land to merge with Monsanto
Monsanto announced Monday that it has reached an agreement to buy out its long-time cotton genetic engineering partner Delta and Pine Land Company, based in Scott, Miss. The acquisition consolidates much of the genetically engineered cottonseed development under Monsanto’s umbrella. Monsanto already owns Stoneville Pedigreed Seed, which in turn owns biogenetic researcher Calgene.

In a separate agreement, Monsanto also will acquire DeKalb Genetics Corp., headquartered in DeKalb, Illinois.

Delta and Pine Land will be merged into Monsanto if D&PL’s shareowners approve the deal, according to a Monsanto press release. D&PL shareowners would be entitled to receive 0.8625 shares of Monsanto's common stock in exchange for each share of D&PL stock they hold. Monsanto currently owns 4.7 percent of D&PL's common shares and 800,000 shares of nonvoting preferred stock. The acquisitions will be closed as soon as practical.

In 1998, Monsanto's technology is expected to be used on approximately 50 million acres worldwide. Approximately 30 million acres are expected to be planted with Roundup Ready soybeans, 2 million with Roundup Ready canola and 50,000 with NewLeaf insect-protected potatoes.

Monsanto projects corn acreage in 1998 will include more than 10 million acres planted to YieldGard corn and 750,000 acres planted to RoundupReady corn. This acreage is more than triple the 3 million acres planted in 1997, YieldGard’s first year on the market.

U.S. cotton growers are using cottons containing Monsanto-developed genes in Bollgard and Roundup Ready varieties from Delta & Pine Land and in Bollgard varieties by Stoneville Pedigreed Seed.

Monsanto expects worldwide acreage of Bollgard and Roundup Ready cotton to increase to more than 5 million from 3 million in 1997.

May 19

Planting at 40 percent and climbing
Cotton planting reached 40 percent last week, according to the Agriculture Department. That is 6 percent behind the five-year average for the May 10, but only 1 percent behind planting progress for the same date a year ago, according to USDA's May 11 crop progress report.

Arizona growers still lead the way in planting, with 89 percent of the crop in the ground. Last year on the same date, they had planted 94 percent of their crop, and their five-year average is 92 percent. Phoenix-based cotton physiologist and crop consultant Jack Mauney said the wet winter had delayed planting by several weeks. He reckons virtually all of the rest of the Arizona crop has now been planted, but that cooler than normal weather is slowing its growth. "But I expect crop to develop OK after it warms," he said.

California growers have planted 60 percent of their crop, a significant jump from the previous week but still considerably behind their five-year average of 91 percent. By May 10 last year, 98 percent of the California crop was in the ground. Mauney said one grower had told him some California cotton land is under water and probably won't be planted. "My own recollection," Mauney said, "is that in any year with heavy winter rains like this one,  the San Joaquin  crop has trouble controlling the plant bugs flying out of the hills off the grasses as  they  dry up during the summer. Low yield has resulted in the past." A hail storm May 5 was reported to have damaged the young San Joaquin Valley, making further delays likely.

New Mexico moved to within a single percentage point of its five-year average, with 70 percent of the crop planted. That puts New Mexico farmers 1 percent ahead of last year. Oklahoma is near the other extreme, with 12 percent planted. That's good news for Oklahoma, however, because last year at this time growers had planted only 1 percent of the state's cotton, the five-year average is 7 percent. In Texas, the story varies with region. Overall, Texas growers have planted 34 percent of their cotton. Tim Sanders in north central Texas and Dan Mascheck in Wharton both report that dry conditions are hurting crop prospects. "

Here in North Central Texas we have had less than 1.5 inches of rain since March," Sanders said. "Combine that with temps higher than 90 and winds higher than 20 mph, (and) our corn is beginning to show drought stress. Cotton is all planted and up to an acceptable stand here. Some growers are already treating aphids."

"Same here," said Mascheck. "If we don't get rain by next week, all the corn will go South. We've had two bad years and this will fold many farmers!"

Planting progress is mixed in the Midsouth. Louisiana, at 66 percent, is ahead of last year and only 2 percentage points behind the five-year average. Mississippi is 42 percent planted, while Arkansas has 39 percent. Missouri lags behind with 16 percent, but Tennessee, with only 10 percent planted, has the lowest rate in the Cotton Belt.

In Como, Miss., at the edge of the Delta, Sledge Taylor reports improving conditions. "We did not get any rain this weekend and  the planters rolled all weekend. It has been slow going (moving from field to field working dry spots) after the heavy rains of about nine days ago. By Tuesday, all wet spots are dry enough to plant and we should finish this week. We are about 65 percent planted now. The crop is later than we like, but the 85 degree temps this week
should jump start the emerging plants."

"Widespread rainfall hit West Tennessee Saturday night, adding to the already wet conditions," reports Brownsville, Tenn., cotton broker Jim Nunn. "Rainfall amounts ranged from 0.5-3.0 inches in reports gathered from farmers and gins. These amounts follow amounts totaling 3-6 inches that were recorded from 12 a.m. Wednesday through Thursday.  Some cotton was planted Saturday ahead of the rains, but the amounts were small and in isolated areas."

Planting is picking up in Georgia, according to crop consultant Carl Hobbs. "We are finally drying out a little in South Georgia," he said. "Cotton and peanut planting is progressing at a pace now that I've never seen before, and producers seem to be doing a really good job! Some of the stands from fields planted two weeks ago are struggling a little, but should be acceptable. We are approximately one week behind."

Overall, Georgia growers have planted 37 percent of their crop; last year they had planted 48 percent on the same date, and the five-year average is 59 percent.

Hobbs said growers in middle Georgia are behind their usual pace, but predicted that won't last long. "Because of heavier rains, they are about two weeks behind, but there is a lot of eight- and 12-row equipment in those bigger fields up there, so they'll catch up fast."

Seedling cotton is south Georgia is suffering some damage from wind. "Sand and grit are flying," he said.

Elsewhere in the Southeast, Alabama has planted 65 percent of its crop; South Carolina has 38 percent and North Carolina has 41 percent.
May 12

Awaiting announcement of Buctril label
Several sources report that Buctril has received its label for use in cotton. Neither the manufacturer nor the National Cotton Council had posted the news on their websites as of Friday night, but we have inquiries out and expect confirmation soon.

Buctril, a Rhone-Poulenc post-emergence broadleaf herbicide, has long been labeled for grains, alfalfa, flax, onions and some vegetables. The active ingredient, bromoxynil, is normally toxic to cotton. However, Calgene and Stoneville Pedigreed Seed have developed cotton genetically engineered to tolerate applications of bromoxynil. Stoneville says it has enough BXN cottonseed to supply up to 400,000 acres this year.

According to Calgene, weed control in cotton is hampered by the lack of post-emerge broadleaf herbicides, such as bromoxynil, which are effective at low application rates. Cotton growers are therefore limited to using other herbicides, at high application rates, often resulting in crop damage. Buctril is effective at low doses, and rapidly degrades in the environment in less than two weeks, depending on field conditions.

Stoneville Pedigreed Seed introduced bromoxynil-tolerant, or BXN, cotton varieties commercially in April 1995, according to the company's website. The BXN gene is stacked with Monsanto's Bollgard gene conferring protection from certain caterpillars. Both Calgene and Stoneville are subsidiaries of Monsanto.

In late March, Stoneville officials announced that it would not charge a BXN technology fee to growers who plant BXN 47 and BG 4740 in 1998, whether or not Buctril received its cotton label  in time for use this season.

Don Threet, Stoneville marketing manager, said "Growers must make crucial herbicide decisions prior to planting. With planting plans being finalized, waiving the BXN technology fee was the only way to ensure that growers can plan in a timely fashion."

Mauney signs on a cub reporter
Noted cotton physiologist Jack Mauney recently attended the Plains Cotton Growers Association annual meeting and Texas Cotton Ginners Association equipment show in Lubbock. Mauney, spokesman for the National Cotton Council's Cotton Cares program, generously provided reports on three urgent topics that were discussed at the meeting:

Why cotton prices are scraping bottom
National Cotton Council economist Mark Lange opened his remarks at the annual meeting of the Plains Cotton Growers Association by noting that three events have put the cotton markets in the tank.

First, of course, was the announcement of USDA planting intentions estimate of 13.2 million acres.  Lange noted that over the years the Cotton Council survey (which  in February estimated 12.1 million acres would be planted to cotton) has been slightly more accurate than USDA in predicting final cotton acreage. Both surveys have an average error of about 3.5 percent

[Mauney note: If they both  missed it this year by about 4 percent, the USDA on the high side and the NCC on the low side, the final acreage would split the middle at 12.6 million acres, a figure frequently mentioned by merchants.]

Second, the Chinese have announced intentions to export cotton this year. The last time they were active in the export market it depressed the market by an estimated 4 cents/pound. The announcement
triggered a 4-cent drop in the price of old-crop cotton.

Third, the Asian monetary crisis has caused a flattening of  world offtake of cotton. It has not caused any significant cancellations of U.S. exports, and Lange does not foresee that cancellations are likely.  But the world stocks-to-use ratio stands at 42 percent, and Lange said that anytime that ratio is above 40 percent,  prices are depressed. Polyester price at 45 cents keeps world demand from expanding as fast as population growth.

 In the face of these events, Lange said he believes that the market for new-crop cotton at 68 cents has discounted most of these supply/demand concerns.  His current estimate for actual plantings is 12.4 million acres, which would likely produce a crop of 16 million bales and could reduce U.S. carryover to 2.2 million bales.  He pointed out, however, that this estimate is unlikely to occur because the prospect of that carryover would increase prices and trigger imports into the U.S. market.

  Lange used charts of production costs in various regions of the Cotton Belt to show why acreage is shifting.  He noted that production costs in the West and Southwest are increasing, causing acreage reduction, that costs in the Midsouth are fairly constant, but that profits in alternate crops such as corn and soybeans have been attractive. The only region that has seen cost reductions is the Southeast, where acreage increases confirm this cost advantage.

[Certain note: I'm looking for confirmation of acreage increases in the Southeast.]

Boll weevils find a home, home on the Plains
The best attended session at the Plains Cotton Growers meeting was the workshop on boll weevil control.  The mild winter has made estimates of a serious outbreak of boll weevils a major concern of growers in West Texas. Growers filled the room and stood against the walls to hear entomologists and agronomists describe the best strategies for combating this dreaded pest.

Those specialists agreed that growers should try to prevent crop delays by timely planting, fertility and irrigation practices. They emphasized that growers should not hesitate to apply insecticides should  emerging weevils begin to invade fields. Once established, a population of weevils can cause extreme yield loss and is difficult to control because of continuous egg-laying and emergence.

Continuing progress on FQPA
In a spirited talk to the Plains Cotton Growers Carla West, NCC producer representative  in its Washington office, gave a description of the Council's interaction with EPA.  She described the difficulties the NCC staff has in understanding the interpretation EPA is putting on the new FQPA law.

Because this frustration is shared by other trade organizations, the NCC has joined others to form the Implementation Working Group, which seeks to have  EPA develop an Implementation Road Map that  everyone can understand. This would insure that the EPA uses sound scientific data to undergird its decisions, makes the process transparent to all parties, and has reasonable transition periods when compounds are removed from registration.

As an example of how the process works,  West described the ongoing negotiations with EPA in getting Section 18 registration for Furadan use in Texas (leading to use in other areas as well). After the announcement in early April that it would allow the use of Furadan, the EPA's wording of the announcement seemed to eliminate most of the soil types into which cotton is planted.  So it was back to the table to explain what was needed. She felt on that day that negotiations had been successful and that Furadan would be available for use.

Administration takes new approach to FQPA
Vice President Al Gore announced April 8 that the administration will take a new approach — one more responsive to the concerns of agriculture — in implementing the 1996 Food Quality Protection Act. Gore said the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Agriculture will work together to meet FQPA goals, relying on sound science and appropriate input from the public and farmers.

Growers and consultants had been in a near panic about the implementation of the law, as it stood to cut off the availability of vital crop-protection products with no provision for replacing them. Industry groups had engaged in an intensive lobbying campaign to try to get some relief.

Katie McGinty, chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, outlined the new approach at a White House briefing. The initiative includes several principles that should be used in the implementation of FQPA, she said:
 

National Cotton Council President Jack Hamilton praised Gore's announcement as “saying the things agricultural producers need to hear.”

“We would like to think that our dialogue with the administration on this issue has paid off,” said Hamilton, a Louisiana producer and ginner, after the briefing. “Recent decisions by EPA have made producers nervous they will not have access to the crop protection products they need to produce a crop. We will withhold final judgment until we see results, but the statements made today are encouraging.”

Rep. Charles Stenholm, a Democrat from Texas, also voiced cautious optimism.  Stenholm and Rep. Marion Berry, a Democrat from Arkansas, had met with Gore two months earlier to express concerns about FQPA’s potential consequences for U.S. agriculture.

 “If the FQPA is going to work, there has to be full and complete cooperation between the EPA and USDA,” said Stenholm. “I am pleased that the vice president recognizes this. But in order to follow the spirit and intent of the law, there must also be open communication between grower groups, registrants and consumers.”

NRDC’s pre-emptive strike fails
Anticipating Vice President Al Gore's announcement of a new approach to implementing the Food Quality Protection Act, the National Resources Defense Council made a pitch to his boss. Apparently it was not as effective as NRDC hoped, but its real impact cannot yet be measured.

On April 3, a Friday, NRDC operatives began soliciting signatures for a letter to President Clinton that was to be delivered the following Monday, two days before the White House briefing at which the new approach was announced.

The letter targets agriculture as threatening the health of children by using pesticides on food crops, and it accuses ag lobbyists of purveying misinformation about the implementation of the law. “We believe that far from being overzealous in implementing FQPA, in some cases EPA has gone too far in accounting for industry interests, triggering ... major concerns about EPA's implementation to date,” the letter reads. It goes on to list five areas the NRDC finds “troubling.” Click here for the full text of the letter.

Copies of the letter were to be sent to Gore, EPA Administrator Carol Browner, Assistant Administrator Lynn Goldman, Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman, Office of Management and Budget Director Franklyn Raines and all members of the U.S. House and Senate.

A memo soliciting signatures for the letter shows the NRDC’s fear of losing ground on FQPA and spells out the strategy embodied in the letter:

“The agribusiness, food, and pesticide industries (and their allies on the Hill) are applying substantial political heat to the White House and EPA regarding the implementation of FQPA, the new pesticide law....

“We are extremely concerned about the White House signals, which could spell the beginning of the derailment of the 1996 law we fought so hard to get. We urgently need to counterbalance the industry political forces. Thus, attached is a letter to President Clinton that urges him not to cave in to industry and, as a counterweight to industry arguments that EPA is overzealous, includes a detailed list of some of our fundamental problems with how EPA is being underprotective in implementing the law.”

In addition to breeding material, the acquisition brings Phytogen a finished seed variety that will be introduced commercially by Mycogen’s Morgan Seeds subsidiary in 1999, according to Mycogen. The breeding program was originated by Dr. Juan Vrdoljak, who developed several commercial varieties that are resistant to the “blue disease” virus, a major disease problem in Argentina's approximately 2.5 million acre cotton-growing region. The breeding program is now led by Vrdoljak’s son, Ivan, who will remain with Phytogen.

“This gives Phytogen an immediate presence in a significant cotton growing region and augments Morgan’s product line,” said Mycogen President Carl Eibl in a statement. “Our plan is to immediately expand the breeding program with the addition of high fiber quality breeding material that Phytogen has developed for the high-value California market, which are also well-adapted for Argentina.”

Greek cotton 50 percent planted
While the U.S. crop is less than 10 percent planted, farmers in Greece already have half their cotton planted, reports Stamatis Kouroudis, managing director of Thrakika Ekkokistiria S.A. (Thrace Cotton Ginning Mills).

Weather conditions favored cotton planting, “which in fact is progressing very fast at this period in all cotton producing areas in Greece,” Kouroudis says in a status report on his company's website. “In a few areas such as Farsala (Thessalia), sowing of cotton is already completed, whereas in Thrace only a 10 percent of the acreage is sown. This is absolutely normal, since the cooler conditions that historically prevail in Thrace at this season do not allow sowing until after the 20th of April. A slight problem with regard to Thracian cotton plantations is that the heavy rains during March did not allow all the appropriate tillage operations to take place in the fields.”

Cotton was produced on some 385,000 hectares (a little over 950,000 acres) last year, and Kouroudis expects a slight increase in 1998.

For Kouroudis' full report and an excellent overview of the Greek cotton industry, visit Thrakika Ekkokistiria’s website at http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/thraekk/

April 17
A few words from Mr. Ray
Louisiana cotton grower and consultant Ray Young was looking pretty chipper April 3, despite having to stay flat on his back most of the time. He was delighted with the fist-full of messages from Land of Cotton readers. He reached for his glasses and read them quickly, then put them on a table close to his bed to savor later when his visitors had gone.

Having family around has helped keep his spirits up while he’s recovering from injuries suffered in an automobile accident in March. He’s had both his daughters, Peggy and June, and three young grandchildren visiting him in Wisner, while one of his sons, Jesse, gets ready to plant.

Mr. Ray’s land doesn’t take much preparation in the spring. Thanks to his long-term no-till program, soil in his fields is friable and rut free. Typically, after burning down his winter cover crop, Mr. Ray is about ready to put seeds in the ground. This is a far cry from the years when the black dirt in the northern Louisiana fields couldn’t be worked for months, delaying planting and making the crop late year after year. One field, the first in which he tried no-till, hasn’t been plowed in 15 years, and the soil structure continues to improve, he says.

Ray and Jesse plan to plant 1,900 acres of cotton this year — and no corn or soybeans. They have cut back the land they are planting, relinquishing some rented fields to allow Jesse to concentrate more on consulting.

Having been laid up for two weeks and with another two weeks in bed ahead, Mr. Ray was anxious to be busy. “I don’t like lying here when there’s work to be done,” he said.

April 10
Expert advice: Don't panic
How did savvy traders make money in Tuesday's market? According to market analyst Stephen Johnson, they didn't. "Didn't look like you could do much about anything, even if you guessed what the market's reaction was going to be. Trying to clutch straws, the theoretical values of both May and July are about where they closed, only 5-8 points lower."

Johnson looked at USDA's cotton acreage estimate of 13.2 million acres with a healthy disbelief. "I would still like to know how the number can only be reduced that much when seed sales have been poor thus far and so many farmers had stated their intention to do something else. Even bankers were expecting lower numbers based on what they were lending. Just goes to show that once again, the USDA is reading a different book to the rest of us. If they are even close to being correct, heaven help the farmers. This was about the least helpful thing for the market."

Switching to a technical explanation, Johnson said the market "has broken below correction levels -- i.e. (Tuesday's) low should lead to more lows being made. At the outside, (Tuesday's) low might hold on a chart, but we would need good consolidating days Wednesday and Thursday. Fundamentally, we're scr****. More corn, more beans and more cotton. I just hope that along with the extra acres farmers are finding to plant, that the USDA can find some more customers. Seems like dollar cotton was the wrong year to institute Freedom to Farm."

Johnson said he hoped that producers had followed the advice of their marketing consultants in instituting hedge programs a few weeks ago and executing them Tuesday. "At that time, 74.50 cents or so seemed a mediocre price; well, here it is, 72.10!"

And for growers who didn't follow such a program? "Don't panic too much. The alternatives are still not that great, and there is a long way to go before 13.2 million acres go in the ground."

13.2 million acres
USDA's estimate for cotton planted acreage is 13.2 million acres for the 1998 U.S. crop. That number, released early Tuesday,  is somewhat higher than market experts were predicting and a million acres more than the National Cotton Council's January projection. Guesses among participants in Cotton-L, the Cotton Industry Discussion List, during the past week ranged from 11.45 million acres attributed to Allendale Inc., a commodity research and brokerage firm based in McHenry, Ill., to Brownsville, Tenn., cotton broker Jim Nunn's 12.5, to market analyst Steven Johnson's 12.85.

According to the USDA report, based on a survey of 55,000 farmers across the country in the first two weeks of March, the estimate is "4 percent below 1997 and 10 percent less than the 1996 acreage. The Delta region shows a 9 percent decrease from the previous year, while the Southeast is down 7 percent. Texas acreage is 100,000 acres above 1997, a 2 percent increase. Acreage of American-Pima cotton is up 6 percent from 1997, at 267,000 acres." Click here for a table comparing 1996, 1997, NCC estimate and USDA estimate.

Low prices, blamed for the drop, fell further on the news that the estimate was larger than the market expected. Cotton futures plunged Tuesday. The May contract dropped 3 cents, the limit the trade allows; July closed at 68.61, down 2.94; and December was 72.12, down 2.46.

Tuesday was "not a good market day for those of us in the Cotton Belt," Nunn understated. He attributed the USDA's number to "March Madness" and reported, "One analyst friend told me that he was waiting to see if the USDA was going to announce a typo when he first saw the figure."

 “We did not lose anything near the acreage to corn that we thought,” said Mike Stevens, a trader at Swiss Financial Services USA in Mandeville, La., in a Bloomberg financial news service report. The survey also shows less acreage being moved to soybeans, although that could change if cotton prices continue to fall, Stevens points out.

Corn plantings are expected be up 1 percent over last year with 80.78 million acres, the highest since 1985. Soybean plantings could set a record with 72 million acres, up 2 percent from last year, Bloomberg reports. The increases in corn and soybeans will come at the expense of cotton and wheat, the report says.

Mycogen wins damages from Monsanto
Mycogen has won the latest round in its continuing court battle with Monsanto over the rights to genetic technology. A California Superior Court jury awarded $174.9 million in damages to Mycogen in a breach-of-contract lawsuit which charged that Monsanto hampered Mycogen’s development of genetically engineered corn, cotton and canola.

The award compensates Mycogen for “lost profits and market share ... caused by lack of access to Monsanto’s Bt insect-resistance technology for corn and glyphosate herbicide tolerance technology,” according to a report on Mycogen’s website.

Mycogen had sought more than $200 million in damages, arguing the delay is the reason the company has fallen behind in the competition to produce insect- and herbicide-resistant varieties, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The case has been in the courts since 1993. According to the Mycogen report, Monsanto in 1989 granted options to license the technology to Lubrizol Genetics. After acquiring a controlling interest in Lubrizol in 1992, Mycogen sought to exercise the options in 1993. Monsanto refused and Mycogen filed suit. In 1994, a California Superior Court judge in San Diego ruled in favor of Monsanto. Mycogen appealed, and in 1996 the California Court of Appeals reversed the earlier ruling, sending the case back to Superior Court for a jury to decide the damages.

Mycogen President Carl Eibl said his company intends to complete license agreements for Bt corn and Roundup Ready corn, cotton and canola traits as soon as possible, according to a report by The Bowditch Group.

Monsanto gave Mycogen the genes in vials last year. Mycogen held out for plants containing the genes, which would save years of laboratory work, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Monsanto, however, contends Mycogen won't be getting any germplasm. Earlier in the case, the judge rejected Mycogen's claim that Monsanto should license to Mycogen genetically engineered plants and seed containing Bt  technology, according to a report on Monsanto's website.

Monsanto is not through with Mycogen yet, however. It will seek to have the jury's verdict set aside, and if that fails will appeal the verdict, Bowditch reports. In any case, the two companies will meet again in court before the year is out. Monsanto's patent-infringement lawsuit against Mycogen and Novartis is due to come to trial in June. And Mycogen should learn in a few months whether a Federal District Court judge will grant its motion for a new trial after a February decision invalidated two of its patents.

Cotton experts to advise on ag policy
A number of well-known cotton industry figures are among 155 agricultural experts appointed to six advisory committees last week. Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman and U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky made the appointments to the Agricultural Policy Advisory Committee for Trade  and five agricultural technical advisory committees for trade.

Phillip Burnett, executive vice president of the National Cotton Council of America, and
Texas cotton producer Tommy Funk will serve on the Agricultural Policy Advisory Committee for Trade.

Among those appointed to the Agricultural Technical Advisory Committee for Trade in Tobacco, Cotton, and Peanuts are: Jerry Calvani, Calvani Farms; Willie L. Carter, Carter Farms; William Gillon, National Cotton Council of America; Barbara Haralson, Safford Valley Cotton Growers Co-op Inc.; Allen Helms Jr., Helms Farms; Dewey Lewis, Chapman & Lewis Farms Inc.; Larry Meyers, Meyers and Associates; James Riddle, Abilene, Texas; Thomas Smith, Calcot Ltd.; and William Tharp, Roundtree Cotton Co.

"The caliber of the people who have agreed to help the office of the trade representative and the Department of Agriculture as we prepare to negotiate the next round of multilateral agricultural trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization is impressive," said Barshefsky.

The advisory committees were established in 1974 when "Congress established a private sector advisory committee system to ensure that U.S. trade policy and trade negotiation objectives adequately reflected U.S. commercial and economic interests," according to the announcement.  The committees provide the secretary and the trade representative information and advice on negotiating objectives, bargaining positions and other matters related to the development, implementation and administration of U.S. agricultural trade policy, the announcement said.

Cotton consumption reaches 50-year high
Each person in the United States consumed 32.5 pounds of cotton in 1997, the largest amount in more than 50 years, according to the the USDA’s latest Cotton and Wool Outlook report.

High domestic consumption paired with a continuing strong export market creates a rosy picture for American cotton in the report, issued March 13. U.S. mills are expected to have used 11.5 million bales by the end of the current marketing year five months from now. That is 3 percent above the level of the previous year and approaches the record levels of the early 1940s, the report says.

However, the reason for the strong mill use forecast — “abundant supplies of cotton at lower prices this season” —  could be changing even before the report is widely distributed. Price fluctuations in the last week have thrown 1998 planting projections to the wind.

The situations in other countries seems somewhat more predictable, according to the report. These, too, add strength to the market for U.S. cotton. Thanks to the GSM-2 credit program and the “Step 2” competitiveness program, “the United States is expected to capture a larger than normal share of the global export market,” the report says. “Currently the U.S. export share is projected to reach 28.5 percent in 1997/98, compared with a solid 25.9 percent last season.” The U.S. export forecast was increased 200,000 bales to 7.5 million in March.
 

 U.S. mill use totaled 5.76 million bales in the first half of the marketing year, compared with 5.56 million bales during the period for the previous year, according to the report. And while cotton use has grown 3.5 percent, the report says, use of manmade fibers has remained level.

Per capita cotton consumption, up nearly 3 pounds from the previous year, reflected a trend in all fiber use in 1997. U.S. consumption of all fibers was a record 82 pounds, nearly 5 pounds above the 1996 level and 2 pounds higher than the previous record set in 1994. Cotton accounted for about 40 percent of all fibers consumed in the United States.

Record futures trading
Record-breaking trading continues at the New York Cotton Exchange. The exchange reported the  busiest day in its 128-year history March 13 with 73,833 contracts traded. The record crushed the previous record of 64,394 contracts traded set just three months earlier, Dec. 15, 1997.

Volume in cotton futures contracts also set a record the same day, with 44,400 contracts traded, shattering the previous record of 41,194 contracts traded, set in February. The previous record, set in July 1997, was 39,433 contracts traded.

The record day came at the end of a three-day price spurt that had growers salivating at the prospect of 77 cent cotton and looking for reassurance that the price could go on up to 80 cents. Such confidence was hard to find. More common advice was to hedge some of the crop above 75 cents and “maybe buy some 80 cent December calls in case things move higher.”

By the end of this week's trading, however, prices had settled back to the low 70s and speculation about increased acreage abated. Will cotton plantings hold at the 12.1 million acre estimate? Market experts discussing the situation on the Cotton-L discussion group don't think so. USDA's opinion is due out next week.

Take this to the coffee shop
A new discussion group on the World Wide Web is the wide-area version of the local coffee shop as the place to go to talk about our favorite crop.

Launched by Bean&Bean Cotton Co. of Peach Orchard, Mo., COTTON-L is "the first general discussion mailing list for the cotton industry," according to Bean's home page, one of the most useful cotton pages on the Net. Subscription is open to "anyone with a direct interest in any segment of the industry, ... and any topic directly related to cotton production, trade, shipping, storage, spinning, or merchandising is suitable for discussion."

To subscribe, send e-mail to listserv@listserv.aol.com with the following text: SUBSCRIBE COTTON-L (Your real name).

Topics in the last few days have included prospects for corn plantings in traditional cotton acreage, what the patent fight between Monsanto and Mycogen means for growers, a Georgia merchant who neglected to pay his growers for their ELS cotton, and disease and pink bollworm problems in Bolivia.

The discussion list may never replace the local coffee shop -- at least until Bill Gates figures out how to make the Internet brew coffee and fry eggs -- but it will give you a lot more to talk about over breakfast.

 

 

JAN-MAR 1998	APR-JUN 1998	JUL-SEP 1998	OCT-DEC 1998
JAN-MAR 1999	APR-JUN 1999	JUL-SEP 1999	OCT-DEC 1999
JAN-MAR 2000	APR-JUN 2000	JUL-SEP 2000	OCT-DEC 2000
JAN-MAR 2001	APR-JUN 2001	JUL-SEP 2001	OCT-DEC 2001
JAN-MAR 2002

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