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Land of Cotton Archives
This is the electronic version of back issues from landofcotton.com.
Articles are listed by date they were removed from the news page.
July-September, 2000

JULY

July 10
Not as bad as you thought
Every state has cotton squaring, from 15 percent in Virginia to 88 percent in Missouri, according to USDA's weekly Crop Progress report. Louisiana has 84 percent squaring, and Mississippi and Tennessee both have 80 percent. Arkansas has 76 percent, making a case that the Midsouth has the earliest overall crop this year.

But not so fast -- look at boll setting.

Arizona has 80 percent squaring, and 24 percent setting bolls. Louisiana has 15 percent setting bolls and Mississippi 13 percent, while Missouri has only 8 percent, Arkansas 4 percent and Tennessee 2 percent.
California is a little behind some other states, but far ahead of its normal pace, with 70 percent of the crop squaring and 10 percent setting bolls. Drought-plagued Georgia has 61 percent of its crop squaring and 18 percent setting bolls.

California leads all other states in the percentage of its crop reported as excellent with 25 percent. Another 60 percent was reported as good, giving California the best overall crop condition. Arizona reports 21 percent of its crop as excellent and 53 percent good. Virginia reports only 14 percent of its crop as excellent but adds that 70 percent of it is good.

Only two states, Georgia and Alabama, report higher percentages for the "very poor" category than for the "excellent" ranking.

Bush Hog shakes off parent company
Allied Products Corp. is now completely divested of its interest in Bush Hog, after completing the sale of its last 19.9 percent membership interest in Bush Hog L.L.C. The remaining shares were sold to an affiliate of Bush Hog Investors L.L.C., for approximately $28.4 million.

Allied Products had sold in March an 80.1 percent membership interest in Bush Hog L.L.C. to Bush Hog Investors for $127 million. Bush Hog, based in Selma, Ala., consists of two businesses that formerly constituted the Agricultural Products Group of Allied Products. Those businesses are Selma-based Bush Hog, and Great Bend Manufacturing Co., based in Great Bend, Kan.

Monsanto extends refund deadline
Monsanto has extended the deadline for refunding technology fees on cotton lost to drought for cotton growers in Alabama, Georgia, Florida and South Carolina.

The company announced Wednesday that the new crop-loss deadline for cotton containing the Bollgard Bt gene and cotton with the Roundup Ready glyphosate-tolerant gene is July 15, or 60 days from planting -- whichever is later.

Refunds of the standard technology fee will be offered to growers in these states whose cotton was destroyed by drought conditions during that period.

Extending the deadline makes eligible for the refund approximately 50 percent of cotton acres in these states that otherwise would not have been eligible because of the date the seed was planted.

Monsanto's announcement is an extension of its existing crop-loss policy, whereby, if growers' crops are destroyed for any reason within 60 days of planting, Monsanto issues a full refund of the technology fee for the seed used to plant lost crop acres.

"With all other tools the farmer uses to grow his crop, he has to absorb 100 percent of the cost if the crop fails," said Carl Casale, Monsanto's vice president for North American agriculture markets. "In this case, the grower doesn't get the benefits of using our technology, so we aren't going to charge him for something he doesn't receive the benefits of using."

Growers in Alabama, Georgia, Florida and South Carolina who are interested in applying for the full technology-fee refund should contact their local Monsanto sales representative, agricultural chemical or seed dealer, or call 1-800-Roundup for more information.

Steward granted Section 18s
Growers in Texas, Oklahoma and California may use Du Pont's Steward insecticide to control beet armyworms this season under a Section 18 emergency exemption. The Environmental Protection Agency granted the exemption June 15. Arkansas, Louisiana and Missisissippi gained the use of the pesticide for control of tobacco budworm as well as beet armyworm. The exemption expires Oct. 31.

According to the approval notice posted on the Texas Department of Agriculture Web site, Steward may be applied by ground or air at a maximum rate of 0.09-0.11 lb. active ingredient/acre (Steward is formulated with 15 percent indoxacarb). No more than five applications are permitted per use season. A maximum of 0.44 pounds active ingredient may be applied per season.

A 12 hour re-entry interval after application must be observed. Steward may not be applied through any type of irrigation system; it must not be applied at intervals shorter than 5-7 days; and it may not be applied within 14 days of harvest.

A maximum of 400,000 acres may be treated in Arkansas, 300,000 acres in California, 375,000 acres in Louisiana, 750,000 acres in Mississippi, 150,000 acres in Oklahoma, and 1.8 million acres in Texas.

New crop insurance law this fall
New crop insurance legislation signed into law Tuesday, "The Agricultural Risk Protection Act", is touted as providing vastly improved federal insurance as well as cracking down on fraud. Farmers could begin insuring crops under the new law as early as the coming fall season.

"Crop and cattle producers will find new coverage for revenue losses as well as insurance that more realistically reflects their productive capability and production costs," said House Agriculture Committee Chairman Larry Combest, R-Texas. "I strongly urge producers to take a new look at this coverage with particular attention to its rewards for efficiency, good management, and the ability for producers to better cover risks from weather as well as markets."

The law provides that producers who have experienced multiple years of disaster may re-establish their actual production history to levels that will allow meaningful coverage when losses force down their yields. It also provides for adjustment to reflect increased yields from successful pest control efforts.

New provisions also strengthen the integrity of the crop insurance program by requiring coordination between the Federal Crop Insurance Corp. and the Farm Services Agency to investigate claims of waste, fraud or abuse. The law also mandates greater civil penalties and disqualification of producers, agents, loss adjusters and others who defraud the crop insurance program.

The act also allows experts to develop new policies so that producers will have a wider choice of coverage available. The FCIC would have the authority to enter into contracts for research and development for underserved states and commodities, including specialty crops. Pilot programs may be expanded nationally, including coverage for livestock.

The House of Representatives Agriculture Committee Web site provides several useful links that explain the new law in detail.

July 20
Cross your fingers: This crop looks good
The most telling point in USDA's Crop Progress report this week is the number of states reporting zero percent of the crop in "very poor" condition: nine. Of the five states that do have a portion of the crop rated very poor, Alabama has 13 percent and Georgia has 12. Texas, Missouri and South Carolina have 5 percent or less rated very poor.

At the other end of the scale, California has 35 percent of its crop rated "excellent" and another 35 percent rated "very good." Arizona has 28 percent excellent and 49 percent very good; Tennessee 24 percent excellent and 52 percent very good; Virginia 22 percent excellent and 72 percent very good; Mississippi 18 percent excellent and 53 percent very good.

Despite the drought in the Southeast, Alabama has 41 percent of its crop rated very good and 2 percent excellent, while Georgia has 27 percent very good and 6 percent excellent. South Carolina has 46 percent very good and 7 percent excellent. North Carolina has 69 percent very good and 14 percent excellent.

Reports from around the Cotton Belt have a common theme: Irrigated cotton is in good shape, but dryland is iffy.

The final planted acreage count, issued June 30, holds the crop at 15.6 million acres, 5 percent above last year. Upland cotton accounts for 15.4 million acres, up 5 percent from 1999, while American-Pima was planted on 202,000 acres, down 30 percent from 1999.

The total acreage is somewhat less than had been projected early in the season, as drought in the Southeast and excess rain during the planting window in Arkansas prevented planting in some fields.

With respect to specks ...
If you have expertise in spinning and dyeing or if you have specialized knowledge of the conditions that contribute to white specks, or neps, in cotton, Patty Bel-Berger is looking for you. Ms. Bel-Berger, a materials research engineer at the USDA-ARS Southern Regional Research Center in New Orleans, is studying the impact of variety and cultural practices on how well the fiber performs in the mill. The project, in cooperation with Australian researchers, looks at cotton "from the field to fabric," and is particularly concerned with isolating the causes of white specks.
"The cottons are from diverse production zones ginned in one place to demonstrate to what extent field conditions and varieties influence actual spinning and dyeing performance," she said in a message distributed on Cotton-L, the cotton industry discussion list.

"White speck neps can be quite a surprise to the mill, since they don't show up until the fabric is dyed," she said. "One part of our project is to predict white specks at the seed cotton or bale stage, so that the best processing protocol can be applied in the gin and/or the mill to minimize this dyeability defect. At the very least we would like to identify problematic levels of white specks in the bale so that the affected bales can be put in a line where white specks are not a problem (i.e.: whites and light pastels)."

Ms. Bel-Berger has been asked to address neps and their financial impact at the 10th annual Australian Cotton Conference in August, and she is collecting information from knowledgeable sources to help her prepare her paper. She has prepared a list of questions.
Click here to see them.

July 25
Textile marketing MBA online
If you've been itching to get that MBA in textile and apparel marketing but can't take time out to commute to class, now you can pursue the degree online through the prestigious School of Textiles and Materials Technology at Philadelphia University.

"No matter where people live or how hectic their work schedules are," says David Brookstein, dean of the school which claims to be "the most senior textile educational institution in the country," "they can earn an MBA degree in Textile and Apparel Marketing without taking the time from a busy lifestyle to attend traditional classes on campus."

"The recently enacted Central America Trade Preferences law (Caribbean Basin Initiative)," says Brookstein, "will increase the demand for highly sophisticated textile marketing professionals. Laws such as this open up new opportunities and place new emphasis on textile apparel marketing. The Philadelphia University On-line MBA in Textiles and Apparel Marketing will
help professionals learn how to build strategies that take advantage of the growing billion dollar U.S. textile industry."

Students enrolled in this unique new program should have an Internet connection, e-mail, and the desire to pursue learning in a technologically advanced format.

Applications are now being accepted for this program that begins in April 2001. Foundation courses for those without an undergraduate business education will be available online this September. For further information, e-mail the MBA Office at gradadm@PhilaU.edu.

EPA goes ahead with TMDLs
EPA Administrator Carol Browner defied the will of Congress on Tuesday and signed the finalized rule establishing total maximum daily loads for farm and forest land water runoff under the Clean Water Act. The highest-ranking members of the House Agriculture Committee lambasted the rule change, declaring it could turn a farmer into an outlaw just for irrigating his crop.

The rule change requires calculation of TMDLs of soil and other particles carried in water that washes across fields and forestry lands, that may eventually find its way to streams and rivers. It is part of the Clean Water Act that originally was designed to measure TMDLs for point source polluters such as factories. Last August, however, EPA proposed to apply TMDL calculations to non-point sources, such as general water runoff from forestry, farm and ranch lands.

Congress sought to block the rule change with a legislative rider added to the emergency supplemental spending bill that passed just before the July 4th recess. Browner went ahead with the signing before the legislative prohibition took effect. "The agency, however, is making the effective date for the program coincide with the end of the delay," Oct. 1, 2001, according to EPA. That means the rule will take effect shortly before the presidential election, and enforcement will be the responsibility of a new administration.

EPA hailed the rule change as an important initiative to protect the public health and the environment. "This program is designed to control the greatest remaining threat to America's waters - polluted runoff," agency officials said in announcing the signing.

Chairman Larry Combest, R-Texas, and Ranking Minority Member Charlie Stenholm, D-Texas,
said the new rules mean that farmers "have no way of knowing from EPA if they must get federal permission for irrigation of their crops, or whether a heavy rain washing over their fields will turn landowners into lawbreakers.

"EPA's rule change is a public policy debacle with the potential for a national cost in
billions of dollars and lost credibility," Combest and Stenholm said in a joint statement. "Clearly, EPA has mishandled this process from the beginning and continues to do so by going ahead with this rule change. Their attempt to dodge responsibility by forcing a rule on the next president clearly shows a lack of confidence in the integrity of their own proposal."

EPA announcement

EPA's TMDL site

Final rule text (625K pdf)

House Ag Committee announcement

Ag Committee backgrounder

Water Pollution Program Improvement Act

Aug. 1
ICAC forecasts record cotton consumption
The Cotlook A Index declined 3 cents in June, as rains in the cotton belt of the USA strengthened the prospects of a near-record crop in 2000-01, according to the July press release of the International Cotton Advisory Committee. The average season-to-date Cotlook A Index stood at 52 cents in June, and with prices expected to remain above 58 cents per pound in July, the Cotlook A Index is likely to average 53 cents per pound in 1999-00. The current estimate for 2000-01 is that the average Cotlook A Index will increase to 62 cents per pound.

The recovery of prices since December 1999, when the Cotlook A Index was quoted as low as 44 cents per pound, is mainly the result of increased consumption of cotton in the second half of the season, which at the same time lifted international trade. In March 2000, the level of export
commitments worldwide increased to 5.3 million tons, the highest level since 1995-96. Export commitments increased to 5.7 million tons in May, only 30,000 tons short of expected world exports in 1999-00. India and Turkey, both important cotton producers, have increased imports of cotton and now account for 10 percent of world imports. Increased trade during the second half of 1999-00 is a reflection of increased consumption.

World mill consumption of cotton is estimated at 19.7 million tons in 1999-00, 750,000 tons more than during the previous season. More than half the increase (64 percent) is concentrated in China, Turkey and India. Three other countries, Pakistan, Russia and Mexico, account for another 25 percent of additional consumption in 1999-00. World mill consumption of cotton is expected to continue to increase in 2000-01, although at a less rapid pace. Compared to a 4 percent increase in 1999-00, world mill consumption of cotton is expected to increase by 1.1 percent to reach 20 million tons in 2000-01.

World Cotton Supply and Distribution

1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01

Million Tons Million Bales

Production
18.64

19.16

19.08

85.6

88.0

87.6

Consumption
18.97

19.72

19.94

87.1

90.6

91.6

Exports
5.36

5.85

6.22

24.6

26.9

28.6

Ending Stocks
9.77

9.22

8.36

44.9

42.3

38.4

Cotlook A Index
59

53*

62*

59

53*

62*

* US cents per pound. Statistical estimates are based on current estimates of supply and use; 95% confidence intervals extend 15 cents per pound above and below each point estimate.

Source: ICAC

AUGUST

Aug. 7
A Midsouth horse race
Missouri now holds the lead in crop maturity, but not by much. Missouri reports 99 percent of its crop is setting bolls, but Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas have 98 percent each, according to USDA's Crop Progress report. Tennessee is farther back with 87 percent. The crop is generally early throughout the Midsouth, although Louisiana matches its five-year average and Tennessee is three points behind.

In the Southwest, Texas has 69 percent of the crop setting bolls, while Oklahoma has 55 percent. Both states are a few points ahead of their five-year averages.

In the West, Arizona has 94 percent setting bolls, four points ahead of its five-year average. California has 75 percent setting bolls, considerably ahead of its five-year average of 62 percent.

In the East, Virginia has the slowest maturing crop with 50 percent setting bolls and is farthest behind its own five-year average, 81 percent. North Carolina has 80 percent setting bolls, South Carolina has 62 percent, Georgia has 82 percent and Alabama has 85 percent. There's still a lot of doubt, however, about how much of a crop Georgia and Alabama actually will have left after the drought has taken its toll.

California is still showing the highest quality overall, with none of its crop reported as either "very poor" or "poor." Oklahoma, Tennessee, Missouri and Virginia report only 1 percent as poor and none as very poor. Arizona reports 3 percent as poor and none as very poor. Arkansas has 10 percent poor and none very poor. North Carolina has 1 percent very poor and 4 percent poor.

The crop in Alabama and Georgia appears to have improved a little in the last week, perhaps benefited by intermittent rain. Alabama now reports 1 percent excellent and 46 percent poor or very poor. Georgia has 7 percent excellent and 32 percent poor and very poor.

The price of perspective
Cotton prices last year were the lowest in the last eight, according to a summary of agricultural prices issued by USDA. The report, which indexes prices relative to the eight-year average rather than reporting actual dollar amounts, shows that the 1999 price was 85 percent of the eight-year average. In 1994, the price was 127 percent of the eight-year average.

The report also looks at prices for the last eight years compared against a 1910-1914 index. Growers received 437 percent of that average in 1999. Sort of puts things in perspective, doesn't it?

Speaking of ...
Here's another example. This comes to Land of Cotton from Clayton, La., crop consultant Roger Carter, who passed it along from his Fresno, Calif., colleague Mike Beevers:

Pythagorean theorem: 24 words
The Lord's prayer: 66 words
Archimedes' Principle: 67 words
The 10 Commandments: 179 words
The Gettysburg address: 286 words
The Declaration of Independence: 1,300 words

The U.S. government regulations on the sale of cabbage: 26,911 words

Aug. 28
Disaster designations bring federal aid
Several states across the U.S. Cotton Belt have received federal agricultural disaster designations for some or all of their counties as a result of the continuing drought.

Every county in Georgia was declared an agricultural disaster area, along with 39 counties in South Carolina and 18 in Florida on July 14. Seven counties in Arizona received the designation on July 17. On June 23, the designation went to 64 counties in Alabama, 41 in Florida, and 27 in New Mexico.

Such a designation by Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman or by President Clinton makes farmers in those counties and all contiguous counties eligible for emergency low-interest loans and other forms of assistance.

"The devastating effects of last year's historic drought continue to plague many states again this year," said Glickman. "USDA is working to help farmers and ranchers hit hardest by these conditions."

Farmers in eligible counties have eight months to apply for the loans to help cover part of their actual losses. Each loan application is considered on its own merits, taking into account the extent of losses, security available, repayment ability, and other eligibility requirements.

Glickman announced on July 6 that emergency haying will be permitted on some Conservation Reserve Program acres in areas hit hardest by the drought.

To be approved for emergency haying, a county must have suffered at least a 40 percent loss of normal moisture and forage for the preceding four-month qualifying period. USDA will determine which counties will be approved for haying and will require CRP participants to submit applications with their local Farm Service Agency offices. Haying may be authorized until August 31 or until disaster conditions no longer exist, whichever comes first.

Only livestock operations located within approved counties are eligible for emergency haying of CRP acreage. CRP participants who do not own or lease livestock may rent or lease the haying privilege to an eligible livestock farmer located in an approved county.

CRP annual rental payments will be reduced 25 percent to account for the areas hayed. At least 50 percent of the CRP contract acreage must be left unhayed for wildlife. Other restrictions and limitations also apply.

To make sure you qualify and to learn how to apply for a loan, contact your local Farm Service Agency office or visit the agency's Web site.

ICAC: Prices, consumption on two-year upswing
World cotton prices are expected to maintain an upward trend over the next two years and U.S. producers are in prime position to reap the reward, according to the according to the August report of the International Cotton Advisory Committee.

U.S. cotton production is expected to rise by 500,000 tons in 2000-01, keeping world cotton supplies stable as non-U.S. cotton production falls. Production outside the United States could drop below 15 million tons for the first time in six seasons, the ICAC projects. A concurrent rise in consumption will drive prices higher, the report says.

World cotton consumption rose to a record level, 19.8 million tons, in 1999-00. This was an increase of 800,000 tons, attributed to low international prices for cotton compared to synthetics and "faster world economic growth after the financial crisis of the emerging markets in 1997-98," according to the report. Worldwide cotton consumption is expected to exceed production by some 900,000 tons in 2000-01 and 600,000 tons in 2001-02. "Declining ending stocks are expected to have a positive effect on the season average Cotlook A Index during the next two seasons," the report says.

"In 2000-01, the average Cotlook A Index is expected to move closer to 60 cents per pound reducing the comparative advantage of cotton to chemical fibers. However, predictions for faster economic growth by the IMF and other financial institutions justify predictions of new records of
world cotton use above 20 million tons in 2000-01 and 20001-02. In the next five seasons, world consumption is expected to increase at a slower pace than the last 50 years and reach 21 million tons in 2005-06. Projections by the Secretariat (of the ICAC) indicate that polyester and other chemical fibers will eventually increase their share relative to cotton."

Opening number
With five states now reporting 100 percent of the crop setting bolls, the race now is for getting those bolls open. Arizona is in the lead with 15 percent of the crop showing bolls starting to open, but Texas is not far behind with 14 percent, according to USDA's Crop Progress report. . Texas is even with its five-year average, but Arizona is 3 percentage points behind. The crop condition is quite good in both states as well, with 98 percent of Arizona's crop reported as "fair," "good" or "excellent" and 76 percent in that range in Texas.

The earliness that has characterized the Midsouth crop through the summer is not showing up yet in boll opening. Louisiana has 6 percent of its crop with bolls opening, but that's 2 percentage points behind its five-year average. Mississippi has 4 percent, even with its five-year average, and Missouri has 1 percent, a point ahead of its five-year average. Only Arkansas, whose 4 percent compares to a five-year average of zero percent, is showing significant early boll opening.

California and Virginia again report the best crop condition; neither has any portion of its crop reported as "very poor" or "poor." And while California reports 25 percent as "fair," Virginia has only 8 percent "fair."

Alabama and Georgia gained a little more ground in the last week. Alabama now reports 41 percent as very poor or poor, compared to 46 percent a week ago. Georgia reports 30 percent as very poor or poor, compared to 32 percent last week. Alabama now has 5 percent rated excellent, compared to 1 percent a week ago, and Georgia has 8 percent excellent, compared to 7 percent last week.

SEPTEMBER

Sept. 6
Transition payments to arrive in September
Financial help approved by Congress is ready to go to producers as scheduled during September, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Larry Combest confirmed Wednesday. Payments should begin arriving in producers' hands Sept. 1, he said.

Anticipating producer needs from multiple years of low market values for crops, Congress directed that $5.466 billion be made available to producers as an additional transition payment between Sept. 1 and Sept. 30, equaling their 1999 transition payment. Producers may also claim their regularly scheduled 2000 transition payment under the Agricultural Market Transition Act.

"With low crop prices and high fuel costs, many producers will not make back the cost of preparing, planting and delivering the work of an entire season," said Combest. "September's additional transition payment delivers on our financial commitment to producers with a timely and
meaningful result."

Crop condition deteriorating
Bolls are opening in three-quarters of the crop in Mississippi and Louisiana, about 25 percentage points above normal, but the crop condition has deteriorated in those states, according to USDA's weekly Crop Progress report. Mississippi now reports 29 percent of its crop as very poor or poor; Louisiana 42 percent -- making its crop condition worse than Georgia's. Georgia, which has struggled all year reports 33 percent poor or very poor, but also now has 34 percent reported good or excellent. Mississippi has 33 percent good or excellent, and Louisiana has 25 percent.

Overall crop condition is has dropped from a week ago and is not quite as good as the five-year average. Overall boll opening is slightly ahead of the five-year average. Virginia's crop is 14 points behind its five-year average and North Carolina is 7 points behind, compensating for the earliness in Mississippi and Louisiana. Virginia and North Carolina are also reporting excellent crop conditions.

Virginia continues to lead all states in crop condition, with 94 percent rated good or excellent and the remaining 6 percent rated fair. California has 90 percent rated good or excellent and 10 percent rated fair. North Carolina has 82 percent rated good or excellent; Arizona 81 percent; Tennessee 58 percent; Missouri 57 percent.

Alabama still has the worst crop condition, with 67 percent rated poor or very poor and only 9 percent rated good. None of Alabama's crop is rated excellent.

Sept. 12
The good, the bad and the dreadful
Alabama and Virginia show the extremes of what weather can do to or for a cotton crop in any given season. Virginia could hardly ask for a better season: 96 percent of the state's crop is rated as good or excellent in this week's Crop Progress report from USDA, up from 94 percent last week, and the remaining 4 percent is rated fair. Alabama could hardly survive a worse one: 65 percent of Alabama's crop is rated as either poor or very poor, and that's an improvement of 2 percentage points from last week.

Between the extremes, there is little middle ground. Seven states -- Arizona, Arkansas, California, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee -- have 2 percent or less of their crop rated as very poor, and four of those have 6 percent or less rated poor. Arizona has 22 percent excellent, California 20 percent, and North Carolina and Oklahoma each report 10 percent excellent, although Oklahoma also has 9 percent rated very poor.

The remaining four cotton-producing states on USDA's list all have double-digit very poor ratings. Georgia, with 45 percent of its crop rated poor or very poor, saw its mid-August improvement disappear, although it still has 8 percent rated excellent. Louisiana now has 48 percent of its crop rated poor or very poor -- 5 percent more than last week -- and only 1 percent excellent. Texas has 38 percent rated poor or very poor and 5 percent excellent, deteriorated a little further during the last week. Mississippi has 37 percent poor or very poor and 3 percent excellent, also a little worse in each category than last week.

The reason for the decline shows up in NOAA's Crop Moisture Index. The blood-red swath from eastern New Mexico to Georgia is the area in severe need of moisture. The spring green in the east -- Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina -- is an area of moisture a little higher than crops need. The white area out West is where crops' moisture need is met by available water.

ICAC: Record cotton consumption ahead
The International Cotton Advisory Committee estimates world cotton production at 19 million tons in 2000-01, about 100,000 tons higher than last season, but more than 1.1 million tons lower than in 1997-98. ICAC projects the gap between world consumption and production to be 1 million tons in 2000-01, lifting international cotton prices above 61 cents per pound during the first month of the season. The Cotlook A Index , an indicator of international prices, averaged 53 cents per pound last season, the fifth consecutive year of lower average prices.

The combination of low cotton prices and relatively high chemical fiber prices driven by the increasing cost of crude oil stimulated cotton consumption in 1999-00. Given that crude oil prices remain at a near 20-year high and the continuing growth in the textile industries of India, Pakistan, Mexico, Brazil, Russia and Turkey, cotton consumption may achieve a new record of 20 million tons in 2000-01, according to the ICAC.

ICAC expects ending stocks to decline to a five-year low of 7.7 million tons, while Chinese stocks will probably fall to 2.1 million tons for the first time in 10 seasons. China probably will again become a net importer this season, ICAC projects. Based on the ICAC price model, the Cotlook A Index is now forecast at 62 cents per pound in 2000-01 and 71 cents per pound in 2001-02.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture currently estimates U.S. production at 4 million tons, down 170,000 tons from USDA's August crop survey. U.S. consumption is expected to remain stable at 2.2 million tons this season, and U.S. ending stocks in 2000-01 may remain close to 900,000 tons, according to the ICAC. However, U.S. exports are projected to reach 1.8 million tons, 300,000 tons higher than in 1999-00, reducing the stocks-to-use ratio from 0.24 in 1999-00 to 0.22 in 2000-01.

eCotton buys DTN Cotton
The DTN Cotton Network has been bought by the Internet startup eCotton, the companies announced Thursday. Terms of the purchase were not disclosed, but a joint statement said
DTN will be a shareholder in eCotton and occupy a seat on its advisory board.

eCotton, based in Atlanta, launched its Web site http://www.ecotton.com, early this year. Parts of the site are still under construction, but the company says its goal is "to be the most advanced online commodity and information exchange for the cotton industry." Central to the site's purpose is a marketplace function to connect buyers and sellers of cotton and cottonseed, according to the statement.

DTN, an established business-to-business e-commerce and information company, will provide eCotton with content and transmission services. Based in Omaha, DTN has more than 1,000 employees in eight locations across the United States and approximately 160,000 subscribers throughout the U.S. and Canada, according to the statement. DTN Cotton Network provides accounting and management software to gins, warehouses and merchants. It has operations in Memphis and Lubbock.

"Our goal at eCotton is to be the Web site that the cotton industry accesses for the latest relevant news and information and to provide a neutral exchange that will extend the reach of individuals in an often inefficient marketplace," said Jeff Gilbrech, co-founder of eCotton. "Our partnership with DTN will help achieve this goal and will provide growers more control and flexibility in the worldwide cotton market."

Deere in a China shop
John Deere soon will be building tractors in China. Deere & Co. announced earlier this month that it has entered a joint venture with Chinese tractor manufacturer Tianjin Tractor Manufacturing Co., to form John Deere Tiantuo Co. Ltd., or JDT.

JDT will manufacture and sell tractors for the China market in four basic models at 55, 60, 75 and 80 hp. Production is expected to be about 9,000 tractors annually. JDT is headquartered in Tianjin, China, a city of 9 million residents about 100 miles southeast of Beijing.

The joint venture, 51 percent owned by Deere & Co., represents a $21 million joint investment. John Deere and the state-owned Tianjin Tractor Manufacturing Co. first entered into a technology licensing agreement in 1983.

"JDT brings together a leader in China's tractor market with John Deere's strength in world class standards of quality, productivity and technology development," said Robert W. Lane, president and chief executive officer of Deere & Co. at opening ceremonies in Tianjin. "JDT will make a significant contribution to China's agriculture productivity and continued economic development," he added.

Sept. 19
Harvest begins in earnest
Cotton harvest has begun in measurable quantities across the U.S. Cotton Belt, with growing concern about the size and quality of the crop. USDA lowered its production estimate Tuesday to 18.3 million bales, a reduction of 4 percent from the previous month but still 8 percent higher than 1999 production.

Texas, which began harvesting more than a month ago, now has 19 percent of the crop out of the field, according to this week's Crop Progress report. The U.S. harvest typically begins in Texas Rio Grande Valley, the southern extreme of the state, but reports are already coming in that harvest has begun in the High Plains, the northernmost part of the state. As of Sept. 1, Texas had ginned more than 840,000 bales, far more than had been ginned by the same date in any of the previous three years. The early harvest does not equate to a good crop for Texas, however. Growers in Texas struggled to make a crop with sometimes six weeks between measurable rains, and the state reports 47 percent of its crop as in poor or very poor condition with only 2 percent in excellent condition.

Texas is the only state with statistics reported in the latest Cotton Ginnings report, but in the interim since the first of the month, growers in most other states have begun have begun harvesting their crops.

Oklahoma, which has harvested only 1 percent of its crop, saw the condition of its crop shift to the middle in the last week. Oklahoma now reports 23 percent as poor or very poor and 5 percent as excellent. The week before, 10 percent of Oklahoma's crop was reported as excellent and 30 percent poor or very poor.

Mississippi and Louisiana, having had excellent growing condition early only to be hit with heat and drought in August, have harvested 13 percent each. Louisiana has 48 percent of its crop reported as poor or very poor and 1 percent excellent. Mississippi has 33 percent poor or very poor and 5 percent excellent.

Alabama, which has harvested 5 percent of its crop, reports 64 percent as poor or very poor and none excellent. Georgia has harvested 3 percent and reports 32 percent as poor or very poor and 6 percent excellent. The Southeast has benefited from rain in recent weeks, but whether the crop can recover to any degree will be seen in the next few weeks.

Arkansas has harvested 6 percent of its crop and reports 53 percent as good or excellent. Arkansas has 2 percent in very poor condition and 17 percent poor. Missouri is one of the few states that has not yet begun harvesting, and it is one of only four states that report none of the crop in very poor condition. Missouri reports 51 percent of its crop as good or excellent. Tennessee has just begun harvesting, 2 percent, and reports 3 percent of its crop as very poor. Tennessee reports 40 percent of its crop as good or excellent and 43 percent as fair.

The eastern states continue to report generally good conditions and are slower to begin harvesting. Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina have not yet begun harvesting. Virginia reports 85 percent of its crop as good or excellent and none as very poor. North Carolina reports 72 percent as good or excellent and only 1 percent as very poor. South Carolina has 48 percent good or excellent and 2 percent very poor.

California's crop has taken the lead in crop condition, with 95 percent reported as good or excellent and the remaining 5 percent reported as fair. California has not begun harvesting. Arizona has harvested 4 percent of its crop and reports 86 percent as good or excellent and none as very poor.

Harvest begins in earnest
Cotton harvest has begun in measurable quantities across the U.S. Cotton Belt, with growing concern about the size and quality of the crop. USDA lowered its production estimate Tuesday to 18.3 million bales, a reduction of 4 percent from the previous month but still 8 percent higher than 1999 production.

Sept. 24
Flip-flop crop
Delta cotton took a dive last week while the Southeast showed signs of improvement. For the first time, Alabama and Georgia are not at the bottom of the scale in crop condition. That distinction falls to Louisiana and Texas, according to USDA's weekly Crop Progress report.

Louisiana assumed the unenviable position last week of having the highest percentage of its crop harvested and the worst crop condition in the U.S. Cotton Belt. As the crop condition fell to 55 percent rated poor or very poor, the number of harvested acres rose to 36 percent.

Texas had harvested 23 percent of its acres and reported 51 percent of the crop as poor or very poor.

Mississippi, second in harvested acres with 23 percent, had 31 percent of the crop rated poor or very poor.

Alabama reported 47 percent of its crop as poor or very poor, a significant improvement from the 65 percent two weeks earlier. Georgia reported 30 percent of its crop as poor or very poor, compared to 35 percent two weeks earlier. Alabama has harvested 10 percent of its acreage while Georgia has harvested 5 percent.

California continues to report the best crop condition, with none of the crop rated as poor or very poor. California growers had not begun to harvest their crop last week, although USDA reported in its Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin that the California crop was ripening quickly during a period of intense heat.

Dow to buy Cargill's seed business
Dow Chemical Co. and Cargill announced Monday that Dow subsidiary, Mycogen Seeds, will acquire the assets of Cargill Hybrid Seeds from Cargill Inc. Dow will integrate these assets with Mycogen Seeds, which is affiliated with another Dow subsidiary, Dow AgroSciences LLC. The result will be a larger and more efficient platform from which to launch biotechnology products, the company says.

The purchase will include all seed research, production and distribution assets of Cargill Hybrid Seeds in the U.S. and Canada, except Cargill's InterMountain Canola, Goertzen Seed Research and the Western Canadian seed distribution business.

Cargill Hybrid Seeds develops and sells corn, soybean, sunflower, alfalfa and sorghum seed in the U.S. and Canada. Mycogen develops and sells corn, soybean, alfalfa, sunflower, canola and sorghum seed in the U.S. and Canada. The additional seed operations will make this new seed platform the third-largest U.S. seed corn producer. It is expected the sale will close by
Oct. 31. Financial terms were not disclosed.

The agreement would not affect the sales, service or distribution of seed products from Cargill Hybrid Seeds and Mycogen Seeds during the 2001 growing season, said Pete Siggelko,
global leader, Plant Genetics & Biotechnology, Dow AgroSciences.

Sept. 30
Rain at the wrong time
Louisiana growers have harvested more than half the state's cotton acreage, and the sooner they can get the rest of it to the gin, the happier they'll be. With 57 percent of the Louisiana crop harvested, the crop condition is holding steady at 55 percent rated poor or very poor in USDA's weekly Crop Progress report. Louisiana has ginned some122,700 bales, according to the monthly Cotton Ginnings report.

"Grades appear OK, as is the micronaire," says crop consultant Roger Carter, who works in the northeast corner of the state, "but staple is short and light spot is beginning to appear following rainfall. Yields, however, are for the most part very poor."

Carter explains in his weekly newsletter that rain has fallen for 10 of the last 14 days, following 60 days with no rain at all. The rain is not only delaying harvest, it is also causing the quality of the crop to deteriorate further.

Not everyone in his area has a poor crop, however, Carter says. "Some are picking their worst crop ever, while others are picking their best. In some cases, these folks are less than 5 miles apart. Rainfall and irrigation had something to do with it, but so did rotation." The difference in yield is "200 pounds or better where cotton follows corn or grain sorghum," he says.

"This is nothing new," Carter says, "but it sure puts an asterisk next to what we should be doing next season -- rotate. We must make sure that we are rotating with the right crop, however. Not in all cases is corn the obvious choice. If root knot nematodes were present, then grain sorghum would be the proper choice. In some cases of high populations of reniform nematodes, two years of corn will be necessary in order to drop the populations to levels that will make cotton production once again a viable option."

Frequent rains across the South may have slowed harvest to the east even more, particularly in Georgia where growers still stand a chance of making a late crop. Georgia has harvested 6 percent of its crop, up only 1 percentage from the week before. The crop condition dropped a little, to 32 percent poor or very poor compared to 30 percent a week earlier. Alabama's crop condition dropped back to the bottom, tied with Louisiana at 55 percent poor or very poor, after a slight rebound the previous week. Alabama growers have harvested 21 percent of their crop, compared to 10 percent last week.

California and Virginia are the only states that have not begun harvesting. That puts them slightly behind their five-year averages, which for California is 2 percent and for Virginia is 1 percent. Both states are still reporting quite good crops -- California has 85 percent good or excellent and Virginia 88 percent.

With 73 percent of its acres still to be harvested, Texas already has ginned more than 1 million bales, three-quarters of all the cotton ginned so far this year in the United States. Texas reports 47 percent of its remaining crop as in poor or very poor condition, and 23 percent good or excellent.

Mississippi has ginned 125,700 bales with 44 percent of the crop harvested. Overall, almost 1.5 million bales have been ginned and 23 percent of the crop has been harvested.

JAN-MAR 1998	APR-JUN 1998	JUL-SEP 1998	OCT-DEC 1998
JAN-MAR 1999	APR-JUN 1999	JUL-SEP 1999	OCT-DEC 1999
JAN-MAR 2000	APR-JUN 2000	JUL-SEP 2000	OCT-DEC 2000
JAN-MAR 2001	APR-JUN 2001	JUL-SEP 2001	OCT-DEC 2001
JAN-MAR 2002

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Today's news

	1998/99	1999/00	2000/01	1998/99	1999/00	2000/01
	Million Tons			Million Bales
Production	18.64	19.16	19.08	85.6	88.0	87.6
Consumption	18.97	19.72	19.94	87.1	90.6	91.6
Exports	5.36	5.85	6.22	24.6	26.9	28.6
Ending Stocks	9.77	9.22	8.36	44.9	42.3	38.4
Cotlook A Index	59	53*	62*	59	53*	62*
* US cents per pound. Statistical estimates are based on current estimates of supply and use; 95% confidence intervals extend 15 cents per pound above and below each point estimate.