March 31
A message for "Mr. Ray"
The messages are rolling in for "Mr. Ray" Young, but less than a week is left for anyone who still wants to send one. The last day to send him a message through Land of Cotton is March 31. Mr. Ray claims to be "electronically challenged" and is not online, so messages for him will be printed out and hand-delivered April 2.

"Mr. Ray," cotton grower, consultant and former mayor of Wisner, La., was injured in an automobile accident March 13. He's doing OK, but he'll have to stay in bed for another three weeks or so. He suffered cracked a vertebra and ribs and muscle bruising from the impact of the seat belt, said his friend and colleague Roger Carter, who visited Mr. Ray in the hospital.

Here's Carter's account of what happened: "Mr. Ray was a passenger in a truck pulling a cattle trailer loaded with four bulls. Mr. Ray's partner in the cattle business, Larry Rigdon, was driving, and they had stopped behind a cement truck which had stopped for a school bus. A Wal-Mart 18-wheeler, apparently with a sleepy driver, hit the back of the cattle trailer at about 50 mph. Mr. Ray says he didn't know that those bulls were so valuable, but they saved his and Larry's lives. We've always known that Mr. Ray is a special person and now we know that he has an angel on his shoulder."

A month in bed will be hard -- "I travel pretty hard and fast," he said, but he's confident that he'll be back on his feet at the end of that time.

March 26
Patent fight looks more like gene warfare
With more and more growers planting more and more acres of genetically engineered cotton, the always competitive technology market has become a legal battlefield. One of the bitterest disputes is between Monsanto, which was first on the ground with cotton containing Bacillus thuringiensis genes, and Mycogen, which claims the patents for creating the genes.

A jury decision in February gave Monsanto the upper hand in its patent fight with Mycogen, but Mycogen is still swinging.

Two weeks after a Wilmington, Del., jury ruled that two 1996 Mycogen patents on Bt technology were invalid, Mycogen went back to the Federal District Court with motions requesting that a judge set aside the decision and order a new trial.

A ruling on Mycogen's new motions could take several months, during which crops will be planted. The motions will not prevent sales of Bt-enhanced seed.

Mycogen filed the lawsuit in 1996. Among the claims was that Bollgard cotton, marketed by Monsanto and Delta and Pine Land Co., infringed on Mycogen’s patents for making synthetic Bt genes and using them to develop insect-resistant plants and seed. The jury agreed with Monsanto that its scientists were first to make the synthetic Bt genes, rendering Mycogen’s patents invalid.

Mycogen President Carl Eibl said in a press release that his company considers the verdict flawed. It does not, however, create a proprietary position for Monsanto and "thus does not affect Mycogen's ability to continue developing and commercializing Bt insect-resistant traits," he said.

The decision buoyed Monsanto for its next round of litigation, this time in a lawsuit it filed against Mycogen and Novartis to enforce one of its own patents. That case is expected go to trial in April.

March 20
10 years of Cotton Physiology Education Program
When did you start plant mapping? Think back now to the time before you introduced that pair of pruning shears to the dash of your truck. When was that? About 10 years for the most veteran plant mappers among you.

It was 10 years ago that the Cotton Physiology Education Program was born and plant mapping became commonplace for cotton producers.

"I believe that practically every cotton producer in this country has been enriched in some form by the introduction of plant mapping and the wealth of knowledge made possible by this program," says Andy Jordan, executive director of the Cotton Foundation, which funds the program.

In its first decade, the program has given growers the tools to adjust soil fertility, plant spacing, pesticide application, growth regulation and harvest techniques, enabling them to improve yield and quality at lower cost, says Scott Gibson, cotton market manager for BASF Corp., which has supported CPEP since its inception in 1989.

"We believe the entire industry is more competitive, efficient and profitable because growers today have a better understanding of the cotton plant and how it grows," Gibson says. "Producers who know how the cotton plant grows and develops and who monitor its growth and development are better able to intervene with changes that will improve their crop before harvest."

CPEP's focus has been on raising the awareness of cotton physiology through seminars, reference materials, newsletters, videos, speakers and other activities.

"Ten years ago, we said that cotton farmers were the best managers in U.S. agriculture, but they had to do a better job of managing their crops to survive in the global marketplace," says Jordan. "This is even truer today, partly because of the wonderful new technology driving the marketplace. Cotton producers need knowledge of plant physiology and how it can be practically applied in order to improve margins and profitability."

Land of Cotton has a new home
You're reading Land of Cotton at its new address on the World Wide Web, landofcotton.com. The old site at Geocities has been reduced to a link to this page. Why? Because we all got tired of those pop-up ads and figured it was time to go legit and start paying for the space. The new site is hosted by TelNet (for those who are interested in Net minutiae) and the domain name is registered for two years with InterNIC.

Along with the change of address comes a new, more graphic appearance. The design of the site is still evolving, but pictures are being added slowly. As the season progresses, look for in-field photos -- and please, send me some. In the meantime, you can check out pictures from the CPEP 10th anniversary party at the Beltwide Conferences.

The images on the site are presented in fairly low resolution to keep the loading time short. If you have trouble loading an image, if the quality is poor or if it takes too long, please e-mail me.

Technological solutions to today's problems
"Can we really expect technology to help us reduce cost?" This is the question National Cotton Council Executive Vice President Phillip C. Burnett posed to the cotton session of the Agricultural Outlook Forum last week. Burnett, for one, believes technology can help cotton growers reduce costs and increase production at the same time.

Growers already have seen the benefits of such technological changes in their lifetimes. In the last half-century, Burnett said, the number of man-hours required to produce a bale of cotton has dropped from 175 to three; mechanical harvesting has grown from 5 percent to 100 percent; and cotton moduling has gone from a "far-out idea" from New Mexico State University to a method used on 75 percent of the crop. These advances, along with chemical weed and insect control and the advent of biotechnology have contributed to the doubling of the nation’s average yield in that time period, he said.

And, Burnett said, "The time from the creation of an idea to commercialization is narrowing."

What we've learned from the technological advances, however, is that "there was not one single silver bullet," Burnett said. "There have been many incremental improvements, and most technologies we take for granted today were hard to imagine before they were developed. Based on our past experience, we will be depending more and more on integration of many components of chemistry, engineering and computer technologies into a well focused, efficient management system."

Computer use is increasingly important to cotton producers, Burnett said, especially as computing power increases and prices fall. "We heard a recent report on NPR that something like 37 percent of all households in the U.S. have personal computers [100 percent of Land of Cotton readers use personal computers — Burnett didn’t say that last part]. Adaptation of computers on farms for communications, data collection and risk management are accelerating, and in our organization the Internet is a major tool of communication. We are now hosting a peer-reviewed scientific journal available only electronically." [The Journal of Cotton Science has a permanent link on the home page of Land of Cotton.]

Conventional plant breeding, necessary to maintain genetic diversity, will continue to be extremely important, Burnett said. "Our industry will insist on strong conventional breeding programs to serve in concert with new plant biotechnologies. With focus and resources, we should expect varieties to continue to improve genetic yield potential 1 percent to 2 percent per year, as they have historically," he said.

At the same time, development of transgenic cottons will continue, he said. "We've heard about Bt and its toxicity to bollworms," he said, "but what about other transgenes for boll weevil, plant bugs and aphids? Our information tells us that those transgenic technologies could be available. Disease and nematodes are costing the cotton industry nearly a half billion dollars a year. The potential for cutting those losses through genetic engineering exists, but it may again require public involvement."

Yield increases achieved through genetic engineering is farther away, Burnett said, but not impossible. "We understand yield is not controlled by a single gene and is complex," he said. "Nevertheless, cotton scientists are looking for breakthroughs that will provide significant new levels in yield — even more than we should expect from conventional breeding.  Additionally, we should expect improvements through better ripening, uniform maturing and earlier fruit setting.  We may need a plant to set fruit earlier and be picked in the middle of August rather than in September or October when harvest conditions begin to deteriorate. The cost of development and return to the seed breeder may be the greatest deterrent to these technologies. There may be a growing role for the public sector in these areas of high risk and low return to a private company."

Burnett also sees potential cost reductions in new chemical pest controls. "Targeted, more selective and safer insecticides are being developed and tested," he said. Most of the new insecticides are more environmentally friendly than their predecessors, he said, "but unfortunately, increasing regulations and cost of registration are pushing the cost of new chemistry to the point we can barely afford it."

An area with great potential to both improve production efficiency and reduce cost is engineering systems, Burnett said. The mechanical harvester, for example, is "a bottleneck," he said, pointing out that planting takes about a week, but harvesting can take a month or longer. He did not announce any breakthroughs in harvest technology, but did say the research is taking on a new focus. "There is good evidence," he said, "that equipment manufacturers are actively addressing this bottleneck."

Another example is the development of sensors, he said. Such devices, adapted from weapons technology, could detect the difference between a cotton leaf and a weed, he said. "This will allow targeted spray applications. Consider the savings when we apply the chemical only on the targeted plant and not the ground and cotton in the vicinity." An alternative use for such sensors is already being demonstrated on cultivators that remove weeds between adjacent cotton plants, Burnett said.

The advance that will allow growers to make the best use of all these technologies is precision agriculture, Burnett said. "The fundamental principle of precision farming is that site-specific information will provide us with ways to manage within-field variability." he said. "Precision agriculture is one of the things that will help us understand what is going on in that field and when and how to take action.

"In conclusion, we know that technology has been good to agriculture and to the public at large.  We have a good track record and have a commitment to continue.  But it requires that we maintain our focus on the objective — profitability.  With the understanding that these new technologies could potentially decrease our production costs by as much as 10 cents a pound, we have a target. But it won't happen without a concerted effort to support the public research community, strengthen our own research and educational programs, and build partnerships with our allied industries."

Glickman focuses on trade and research
Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman identified trade and research as the two most important issues facing American agriculture in his remarks opening the 1998 Agriculture Outlook Forum last week in Washington. Although trade and research "may seem quite different," he said, "they are united in their importance to agriculture, and the degree of difficulty of conveying that importance to the general public."

Doing the math on trade is easy, Glickman said: "U.S. farmers and ranchers produce far more than our people could ever consume. Without world markets, the U.S. farm economy goes in the tank. And, as we phase down commodity payments, and they are no longer tied to the amount of production, we need to pick up the difference in foreign sales. The more aggressive we are in expanding our exports, the more we grow our farm economy here at home."

U.S. agriculture is one of the few sectors of  the economy with a large trade surplus, Glickman pointed out. Citing USDA's revised export forecast, he said the United States expects to sell $56 billion in food and fiber in 1998, 2 percent less than in 1997 and $2.5 billion off the record high in 1996. "The bulk of that dip is due to the economic situation in Asia, with some impact from a strong corn and soybean crop in Argentina,” he said.

Glickman said the main reason the United States has not lost more exports to Asia is that USDA extended $2.1 billion in export credit guarantees made possible because International Monetary Fund took steps to stabilize Asian economies. "Without these IMF actions," Glickman said, "another $2 billion in agricultural exports would have been at great risk in the short term and far larger amounts in the long term."

As countries around the world prepare for the next round of World Trade Organization talks in the coming year, the  U.S. position is clear, Glickman said. "We want major cuts if not the outright removal of all barriers to U.S. farm exports — both obvious hurdles, like tariffs, tariff rate quotas and subsidies, and the more creative barriers, like bogus regulatory red tape and phony sanitary and phytosanitary measures. We will seek greater transparency and discipline over countries that hide protectionism behind science that is not as good as it should be. We will not let new barriers replace the old ones and impede genuine progress."

Just as global trade is the vehicle that takes U.S. agricultural products to people who need them around the world, scientific research is the fuel that keeps the wheels of production turning. It is research that “enables us to stay well ahead of world food demand," Glickman said. "With global incomes and populations growing fast, that's something it's imperative we continue."

Glickman recommended growers read, "U.S. Agricultural Growth and Productivity: An Economywide Perspective," a government report that quantifies the contribution of publicly funded research to the brisk pace of growth in U.S. agricultural productivity. "What our team found was — from World War II on into the 1990s — public investment in agricultural research has been responsible for three-quarters of all growth in U.S. agricultural productivity," Glickman said.

However, funding for agricultural research has stagnated since the 1970s, he said. "Since 1985, research funding, in real terms, has declined by 15 percent. The potential consequences of this slow leak extend far beyond economics."

The general public has no concept of the significance of ag research, he said. "That is a prescription for the downsizing of agricultural research and productivity. And it doesn't have to be that way."

Glickman cited recent advances ranging from genome mapping to satellite tracking of insect populations to adapting Gulf War nerve agent scanners to detect E. coli — all "priorities the public passionately cares about. Yet most folks haven't the faintest clue that these efforts have anything to do with agricultural research," Glickman said. "We have only ourselves to blame for that. We talk about plant stress, and people assume we're piping Muzak into greenhouses. We need to talk instead about new super-crops that can grow in arid places like sub-Saharan Africa, revolutionizing the world war on hunger.

"We need to ask: What are our priorities? How much should we invest in each area? How do we make these investments relevant and understandable to all Americans? How do we communicate the message of what we are doing so people understand why this is important to them?

"Unless we do this, the public will not understand the importance of agricultural research, and we will not get adequate funds to continue pushing the frontiers of our knowledge, keeping up the stunning, necessary pace of agriculture's growth."

Cotton forum online
The cotton session Ag Outlook Forum also featured Paul A. Ruh, president, Reinhart Inc., speaking on "Consumption Trends in Latin America;" and Clyde Davidson, vice president for research, Allenberg Cotton Co., speaking on "The New Asian Cotton Situation."

Their speeches, along with Burnett's and many others from the other sessions, are available by e-mail or can be downloaded from the Ag Forum home page.

March 8, 1998
Closing in on expected production
The ginning report issued Feb. 11 shows the 1997 crop is within 4 percent of having as many bales ginned as USDA expected growers to produce. Of the projected 18,976,900-bale production, some 18,346,450 bales had been ginned as of Feb. 1, leaving 630,450 bales to be ginned if the crop is to meet the projection. New Mexico is still  24.3 percent short of the state's expected production, and Oklahoma has to make up 14 percent. All other states are within 7 percent of the projection, and the crop as a whole is 3.3 percent short of the projection. Ginning numbers for Florida and Kansas were not released to prevent revealing the output of individual gins. USDA's next cotton ginnings report will be released March 25.

CRP accepts 5.9 million acres
The Agriculture Department has announced it will accept 5.9 million acres of environmentally sensitive farmland into the Conservation Reserve Program on Oct. 1.

The new enrollment will bring the total acres in the CRP to 29.9 million acres, 31 percent of which are already in the program but have contracts due to expire Sept. 30.  This compares to 28.7 million acres currently enrolled, of which 4.8 million are subject to contracts that will expire at the end of September. The maximum number of acres that can be enrolled in the program at any one time is 36.4 million.

Landowners offered 9.5 million acres during this sign up. USDA's Farm Service Agency has already begun notifying farmers and ranchers of USDA's decisions regarding their CRP offers.

Retiring this land will not have a significant effect on commodity prices, farm income, or the United States' ability to supply world markets with agricultural products, Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman said.

Glickman said USDA is likely to hold another general CRP sign-up this fall. Eligible practices include riparian buffers, field windbreaks, and grass waterways.  Producers may submit offers under the Continuous Sign-Up option throughout the year at local USDA service centers.

The new CRP acreage will restore more than 300,000 acres of wetlands and protective upland areas, protect 57,000 acres of rare and declining habitat, enroll more than 3 million acres in conservation priority areas, and plant 150,000 acres of trees, according to USDA.

For more information about the program, visit the Conservation Reserve Program home page.
 

Feb. 26, 1998
Monsanto announces 1998 cotton technology prices
Monsanto is simplifying the way it prices its genetically engineered cotton technology for 1998, according to John Raines, Bollgard marketing manager. Licensing fees will again be on a per-acre basis for Bollgard cotton, Roundup Ready cotton in picker and stripper varieties and stacked-gene cotton containing genes for both characteristics.

"There will be many new cotton varieties with these genetic traits available in 1998 that are suited to a wide range of geographies and growing conditions," Raines said in a company press release. "In 1998, we will be changing to a more simplified and equitable way to calculate technology acres that is based on sound agronomic practices essential to cotton production." More information on the new reporting process will be announced soon, he said.

For more information, call 1-800-523-2333, contact your local Monsanto rep, or visit Monsanto's website.
 

Feb. 24, 1998
Cotton forum is today
The cotton session of the Ag Outlook Forum is 10-11:30 a.m. today. The moderator is Jarral Neeper, director of economic research for Calcot Ltd. Topics and panelists are:
 

At the luncheon following the cotton forum, Cotton Grower and Cotton International editor Bill  Spencer will moderate. Marks, Miss., farmer Bobby Carson will offer the  "Perspectives of a Mississippi Cotton Producer."

Speeches from the forum are available by e-mail, or they can be downloaded from the Ag Forum home page.

Feb. 15, 1998
NCC expects smaller crop in '98
The National Cotton  Council expects U.S. cotton production in 1998 to be approximately 4 million bales lower than the 1997 crop. The reduced production estimate, 16.1 million bales, is based on a council survey of growers who reported they plan to plant fewer acres of cotton in the coming season — some 1.7 million acres or 12.3 percent less, representing a drop from 13.8 million acres in 1997 to 12.1 million acres in 1998. Click here for a table showing state-by-state projections.

NCC economist Mark Lange said at the council's annual meeting in San Antonio that assuming 5 percent abandonment, 11.5 million acres will be harvested with an average yield of 670 pounds per acre.

Lange said growers in the Midsouth and Southeast intend to move cotton acreage into corn and soybeans primarily, with some increase in wheat plantings. In the Southwest, wheat, sorghum and peanuts will replace cotton on substantial acreage. Areas with sufficient rainfall will also see increases in corn and soybeans. Some Southwest  growers said they would leave the land idle or graze livestock on it before they'd plant it to cotton.  In the West, permanent crops such as almonds, along with vegetables and corn are expected to take acreage from cotton, Lange said.

Lange said low prices have made growers unwilling to plant as much acreage to cotton, and now it's up to the market to signal whether it wants more cotton to be planted.

The market responded with a jump in prices. A week later, however, prices had started back down. At Friday's close, the March contract was at 66.24, down .57; May was 67.67, down .56; July was 69.02, down .62.

Lange acknowledged that many growers would be likely to "reassess their acreage intentions" as planting time nears, and "some may choose to plant more cotton than they currently indicate. He pointed out, however, that those who are considering replacing cotton with corn or sorghum will have to make their final decisions within the next month or so as planting time for these crops approaches. "A rally in cotton prices occurring after this acreage has been committed to corn or sorghum will be too late to bid acreage away from these crops," he said. In addition, he said, wet spring weather in the Southeast and Midsouth could cause some growers to revert to cotton if they are delayed in planting corn.

Feb. 7, 1998
Glickman names Cotton Board members
The Cotton Board is again fully filled, as Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman reappointed five members and three alternates and appointed three new alternates earlier this month.
The 26 members of the Cotton Board and their alternates represent both cotton producers and importers of products that contain cotton. A public member represents consumers.

Reappointed members are: Larry W. Jarnagin, Litchfield Park, Ariz.; Robert L. McGinnis, Marianna, Ark.; Van F. Murphy, Quitman, Ga.; John S. Howie, Yazoo City, Miss.; and Robert W. Bickley, Pecos, Texas.

Reappointed alternates are: John J. Baxter, Watson, Ark.; Mike P. Sturdivant Jr., Itta Bena, Miss.; and Randall T. Bankhead, Roscoe, Texas.

Newly appointed alternate members are: Walter L. Corcoran Jr., Eufaula, Ala.; Diann Denise Prechel, Phoenix, Ariz.; and Thomas Hubert Dollar II, Bainbridge, Ga.

The appointees will serve three-year terms ending Dec. 31, 2000. Walter Corcoran, appointed to the Alabama-Florida alternate member position, will serve the remaining term ending on Dec. 31, 1998.

New faces on Standards Committee
The Universal Cotton Standards Advisory Committee, which makes recommendations to the Agriculture Department on changes to the official American Upland Cotton Standards used internationally in marketing U.S. cotton, has 24 new members and 11 alternates. The committee's members, representing U.S. producers, ginners, merchants and textile manufacturers, were appointed by Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman in December.

In addition to the U.S. committee members, there will be two members from each of the overseas cotton associations which are signatories to the Universal Cotton Standards Agreement. These members will be designated by their associations, according to USDA.
 

Textile manufacturing: Jack P. Crooks, William R. Hill, Eugene C. Frye, Waymon D. Gibson, Earnest T. Goolesby and James E. Thomas; alternates J. Sollie Foy and William E. Bowen Jr.

Feb. 2, 1998
Stand up and be counted
We hope you've completed and mailed your Census of Agriculture forms. They're due back in Washington today.  An electronic version of the form is not available, so the paper form has to be snail-mailed.

The census will count the nation's more than 2 million farmers and ranchers and will compile demographic information about farms at the county level.

The census is being conducted by the Department of Agriculture for the first time as part of a federal move to consolidate the entire agricultural statistics program into one agency. One benefit will be that the results will be available more than six months earlier, according to Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman.

Response to the census is mandatory. However, the same law that requires you to submit information about your farm also protects the privacy of the reports, according to USDA. Information about individual operations is strictly confidential, and census responses are immune from legal processes.

If you have questions about the form or the process, call USDA's toll-free phone number, 1-888-424-7828 (1-888-4AG-STAT). You can find out how the count is going by visiting USDA's census website at http://www.nass.usda.gov/census/

Congratulations are in order
It's about time we congratulated Glen Staten and Keith Edmisten for the honors they received at the 1998 Beltwide Cotton Conferences in San Diego.

Staten, the man most responsible for the development of Acala cottons, received the 1997 Cotton Genetics Research Award.

The most prestigious honor in cotton genetics, the award has been presented for the last 34 years by U.S. commercial cotton breeders to a scientist for outstanding basic research.

Staten, 91, was a cotton breeder for more than 38 years at New Mexico State University. He played a key role in the development of Acala 1517 and maintaining and improving its superior fiber quality. After becoming head of the New Mexico Acala 1517 program in the early 1950s, he developed many breeding lines and strains that were used to develop several Acala lines still in use.

"It is evident that Mr. Staten's work as a cotton breeder has had a very significant impact on world production of cottons with excellent fiber properties and bacterial blight and Verticillium wilt resistance," said veteran cotton breeder H.B. Cooper of Corcoran, Calif. "The conservative estimate is in excess of 100 million bales of high quality cotton."

Carl Barnes, an NMSU agronomy professor, said Staten was truly a cotton breeding pioneer. "Glen Staten was a strong proponent of quality fiber production even during a period of years when there was significant pressure from growers ... to 'give us pounds' at the expense of quality," Barnes said. Staten gave them both.

"The development of Verticillium wilt resistant Acala cotton germplasm was a major breakthrough that affected the entire Cotton Belt," said Dick Davis, an NMSU professor emeritus of agronomy and horticulture. "The outstanding achievement of his career, though, was the creation of an agronomically sound breeding pool of high quality, disease-resistant Acala cottons."

Staten earned bachelor's and master's degrees from Oklahoma A&M University, now known as Oklahoma State University. He received the Honorary Lifetime Achievement and Member Award from the New Mexico Crop Improvement Association in 1995.

Keith Edmisten, Extension cotton specialist at North Carolina State University, was named Extension Cotton Specialist of the Year. The annual award, sponsored by Uniroyal, is conferred by the Extension cotton specialists from across the Cotton Belt.

"Keith is very dedicated, not only to the producers in his state, but on a national level as well," said Dale Monks, Edmisten's counterpart at Auburn University. "He is respected by cotton growers and his peers because he does a good job of making Extension programs work for producers in the field."

Edmisten earned his bachelor's degree in agronomy and master's in crop science at NC State. His doctorate in agronomy is from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. He worked as an area agronomy specialist at Mississippi State University before moving back to North Carolina.

He is active in numerous industry associations, and his research has been widely published. He has recently been instrumental in the creation of the Journal of Cotton Science, a peer-reviewed scientific journal available exclusively online.

Jan. 22, 1998
Sustainable Ag conference in Memphis
Southern growers still have a day to plan on a trip to Memphis for the seventh annual Southern Sustainable Agriculture Working Group conference and trade show. The conference runs Thursday-Sunday at the Cook Convention Center.

Conference organizers have put together 36 workshops aimed at helping the family farm become more sustainable and profitable. The trade show will have some 50 vendors showing off products and services. The highlight, however, promises to be three tours of Delta farms, two large and two small, where sustainable production practices have been implemented profitably.

Conference Coordinator Jean Mills invites your questions. Call her at 205-333-8504 or  e-mail jeanmills@aol.com. You can take a look at the complete schedule and register online at the conference website.

Jan. 14, 1998
1997 crop could be second largest in history
USDA has revised its 1997 crop estimate up to 19.0 million bales, which would be the second largest crop on  record. The latest crop estimate is up 1 percent from December and 34,900 bales above 1996. The average yield across the belt is expected to be 686 pounds per acre, 21 pounds lower than in 1996.

The Agriculture Department projects record yields in Arkansas, Kansas, Mississippi and Oklahoma.  Production estimates rose 90,000 bales in Arkansas and 80,000 bales in North Carolina, as it became apparent that adverse weather early in the season did not reduce yields as much as growers anticipated. Georgia's production estimate, however, dropped 80,000 bales from December as heavy rains during the harvest season took their toll on yield and quality.

Acreage planted to Upland cotton is estimated at 13.8 million acres, down 6 percent from 1996, but harvested acreage at 13.3 million acres is 3 percent more than last year. Producers planted 252,000 acres of American-Pima cotton in 1997, down 2 percent from 1996, and harvested acreage is also down 2 percent, at 251,000 acres.

Dunavant begs to differ
Memphis cotton merchant Billy Dunavant believes the crop will be somewhat smaller than USDA's projection. In his annual outlook presentation at the Beltwide Cotton Conferences in San Diego, Dunavant pegged the crop at 18.85 million bales, putting it a little behind the 1996 crop.

Dunavant, president of Dunavant Enterprises,  expects domestic consumption of 11.5 million bales, which he said is slightly higher than USDA's estimate. Paired with expected exports of 7.5 million bales, Dunavant sees 19 million bales of U.S. cotton being used in 1998. Since that number is larger than what he expects to be produced in the 1997 crop, he projects a decrease in remaining stocks, or carryover, of about 100,000 bales.

Cotton producers around the world will produce 90 million bales in the 1997 crop, compared to 90.1 million USDA was projecting in December, Dunavant said. He expects the Agriculture Department's numbers to go even higher in the Jan. 13 report because China's state Statistical Bureau has increased that country's production numbers. Sure enough, USDA's latest estimate has world production at 90.9 million bales,  "as larger crops in China, the United States, and Syria are partially offset by a reduction in Pakistan."

Dunavant also differed with USDA in his world consumption estimate. "In their December report, USDA forecast that world consumption would be 89.63 million bales, and I think final world consumption will be 88 million bales, because of the Asian economic problems." Asian markets proved Dunavant prophetic, plunging in the days
following his speech and continuing to struggle this week. USDA's latest projected world consumption was 450,000 bales lower than its December estimate,  moving closer to Dunavant's number. The new estimate, 89.18 million, reflects "weaker prospects for textile activity in Brazil, Pakistan and Indonesia."

"USDA's final world carryover number in December was 37 million bales," Dunavant said. "I project the final number to be 36 million bales."  USDA Tuesday moved farther from Dunavant's number, raising its estimate of ending stocks some 1.3 million bales, with China accounting for most of the difference. Dunavant pointed out that his carryover numbers usually are different from USDA's because they have different starting points.

He agrees with the Agriculture Department, however, in that China will have the biggest impact on U.S. exports in the coming year. Last season, China bought 3.6 million bales of cotton from different suppliers across the globe, he said. That number included some 1.67 million bales of U.S. cotton. This season, however, China will have total imports of only 2.1 million bales, of which 900,000 will come from the United States, he said. The reason, he said, is that China started the new season with 14.9 million bales in stock.

The Chinese government decided to stop accumulating carryover and allowing large imports. As a result, China has started marketing its cotton at a price more competitive on the world market, substantially slowing imports, Dunavant said. The move cost China millions of dollars, he said, because the government had advanced growers 90 cents per pound for the last three years and is now selling that cotton to Chinese mills at close to world prices.

Jan. 9, 1998
What's all this talk about 7-inch rows?
The program of the Beltwide Cotton Conferences was sprinkled liberally with the acronym UNR. That fact alone reflects the growing interest in a hot new productionsystem called ultra-narrow row.

Narrow-row cotton production to many of us still means planting in rows 30 inches apart. But for a few innovators, the most profitable row spacing appears to be seven to 10 inches. A cotton crop that looks like it was planted with a grain drill generates a list of questions right off the bat:

Why would a grower consider planting ultra narrow rows? How does the crop management change? What's the impact on earliness? How do you harvest it? Will ginsaccept it? What's the bottom line?

Dr. Tom Kerby, Delta and Pine Land Co. vice president for technical services, provided answers to some of these in a presentation to the Beltwide Cotton Conferences.

Greatly oversimplified, the theory behind ultra narrow-row production is that each plant makes fewer bolls but sets them faster and is ready for harvest sooner. The increasedplant population more than makes up for the fewer bolls per plant. Thus a grower would want to consider UNR to harvest more cotton per acre and finish earlier. Harvest is done with a broadcast stripper rather than a spindle picker, and although ginners have been
reluctant to accept the cotton in the past, they are beginning to be more accommodating, Kerby said. One question he did not address was the cost. That information will come later from the seven growers who've tried the system.

In 1997 trials in Scott, Miss., Kerby said, the crop required less nitrogen fertilizer, fewer irrigations, less plant growth regulator and a different herbicide regimen. The plants, 6 inches apart in 7.5-inch rows, were some 10 inches shorter and numbered 2.5 times the population in the conventional field. The UNR crop yielded 56 pounds per acre morethan the conventional and was ready for harvest 17 days earlier.

"In a UNR system, the emphasis is on early fruiting and growth control," Kerby said. "Three bolls per plant at this plant density can produce yields in excess of two bales per acre. Because it can set three to four bolls in a short time, the length of the growing season can be reduced. The system has the potential to be ultra early, with water, pest control and harvest savings."

To achieve such savings, however, proper management is critical, Kerby said. Uniform plant density is necessary because a plant next to a skip will grow large with vegetative limbs, Kerby said. The stripper will yank such plants right out of the ground if the soil is moist. Excess plant growth must be controlled and growth-stimulating inputs such as high nitrogen and excess water must be avoided, Kerby said. In addition to producing more bark, tall plants create a heavy canopy that can trap humidity and contribute to boll rot.  They also make defoliation and drying more difficult. The cotton must be harvested dry, Kerby said, so good defoliation is critical.

The system, while not perfect, holds great promise, Kerby said. Herbicide tolerant cottons and  improved growth-control methods have made the system feasible, and the need to reduce costs has made it attractive.
 

Jan. 8, 1998
Mycogen and Boswell join forces
Cotton's newest joint venture was announced last week — a value-added seed production effort between Mycogen Corp. of San Diego and J.G. Boswell Co. ofCorcoran, Calif. The new business, to be called Phytogen Seed Co. LLC, will developand market genetically enhanced seed for the U.S. market and internationally.

Mycogen will contribute cash, cotton breeding material and licenses to its technology and patent rights for genetically enhanced cotton in return for a 51 percent interest in the new entity and rights to certain intellectual property. Boswell will contribute its Phytogen cotton seed business and cotton breeding material in return for cash and a 49 percent interest.

The new company will continue to market cottonseed under the Phytogen brand in California, Arizona and Greece. It will develop new seed varieties for introduction in the Midsouth and Southeast in 1999 and for other countries including Argentina and Australia, according to Mycogen President Carl Eibl.

The new company's genetically enhanced varieties will include traits such as insect and disease resistance and herbicide tolerance, Eibl said. He expects the first of those varieties to be commercially available by 2001.

Founded in 1925, Boswell produces and processes cotton and cottonseed products in the San Joaquin Valley and in New South Wales, Australia. Phytogen, Boswell'sseed-breeding subsidiary, had cottonseed sales of about $9 million in 1997, accountingfor some 40 percent of the market for Acala and Pima cotton varieties grown in California.

Mycogen, a diversified agribusiness and biotechnology company, develops and markets seeds and value-added traits for genetically enhanced crops and provides crop protection products and services. It is majority owned by Dow AgroSciences LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Dow Chemical. Mycogen trades on the NASDAQ exchangeas MYCO; Dow is on NYSE as DOW.

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